November 2014 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports decreased by 32 MMBF (21.2%) in November while imports fell by 180 MMBF (15.3%). Exports were 37 MMBF (23.8%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 2 MMBF (0.2%) lower. 

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The rest of North America (i.e., Canada and Mexico) was once again the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in November (41.8%). Asia (especially China and Japan) was a distant second (32.1%). Canada was also the largest single-country destination (21.7%). Year to date (YTD), exports to China were -7.5% relative to the same period in 2013 (down from roughly +11% YOY as recently as September). Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (97.2%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2013, while imports were up 10.5%. 

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts dropped noticeably in November (to roughly 35% of the U.S. total, from 43% in October); Seattle retained the title of most-active district, with 21.7% of the November total. At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled over 71% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 27.2%) coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 31.6% of all softwood lumber exports in November (up from 24.9% in October), followed by Douglas-fir with 14.8%. YTD, southern pine exports were up 28.8% relative to the same months in 2013, while Douglas-fir exports were down 19.1%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.