July 2015 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports decreased by 7 MMBF (5.1%) in July while imports fell by 166 MMBF (-13.9%). Exports were 16 MMBF (10.9%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 81 MMBF (7.3%) lower. The net export deficit was 66 MMBF (6.8%) smaller YoY. 

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North America (mainly Mexico, but Canada was close behind) was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in July (43.2%). Asia (especially China) placed second (33.3%). Mexico was the largest single-country destination (23.8%). Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were down over 41% relative to the same months in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (96.0%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 13.4% compared to a year earlier, while imports were up 4.8%. 

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts dipped slightly in relation to the other districts during July: 39.7% of the U.S. total; Seattle retained the title of most-active district, with 21.3% of the July total. At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 70.2% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 31.6%) coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 25.2% of all softwood lumber exports in July, followed by Douglas-fir with 17.6%. Southern pine exports were up 4.7% YTD relative to 2014, while Douglas-fir exports were down 33.1%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.