September 2015 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports edged down by less than 1 MMBF (-0.1%) in September while imports rose by 57 MMBF (+4.7%). Exports were 13 MMBF (9.3%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 167 MMBF (15.4%) higher. The year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 180 MMBF (18.9%) larger. 

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North America (Mexico: 23.6%; Canada: 18.4%) was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in September (42.0%). Asia (especially China: 17.8%) placed second (32.9%). Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were down 36.3% relative to the same months in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (96.1%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 12.9% compared to 2014, while imports were up 7.3%. 

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts declined in relation to the other districts during September: 36.9% of the U.S. total; Seattle retained the title of most-active district, with 19.7% of the total, although Mobile is catching up (13.8%). At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 67.7% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 31.9%) coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 30.1% of all softwood lumber exports in September, followed by Douglas-fir with 16.4%. Southern pine exports were up 8.4% YTD relative to 2014, while Douglas-fir exports were down 31.1%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.