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Softwood
lumber exports increased (less than 1 MMBF or 0.1%) in February, while imports rose
(71 MMBF or 5.4%). Exports were 14 MMBF (10.0%) below year-earlier levels;
imports were 241 MMBF (14.9%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net
export deficit was 227 MMBF (15.4%) smaller. However, the average net export
deficit for the 12 months ending February 2017 was 16.1% greater than the
average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown
in the graph above).
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North
America (of which Mexico: 20.4%; Canada: 18.6%) and Asia (especially China, the
top single-country destination with 22.0%) were essentially evenly split as primary
destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in February -- each with 39.0%. Year-to-date
(YTD) exports to China were up 6.9% relative to the same months in 2016. Meanwhile,
Canada was the source of nearly all (80.1%) softwood lumber imports into the
United States. Interestingly, imports from Canada are 16.4% lower
YTD than the same months in 2016. Overall, YTD exports were down 3.6% compared
to 2016, while imports were down 6.6%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through East Coast customs districts represented
the largest proportion in February (38.8% of the U.S. total), the West Coast district
came in a close second (35.4%) while the Gulf district lagged (20.0%); however,
Seattle maintained a sizeable lead as the most active export district (22.2% of
the U.S. total). At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 57.8%
of softwood lumber imports -- most notably Duluth, MN (26.13%) -- coming into
the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 29.3% of all softwood lumber exports in February,
followed by treated lumber (15.9%) and Douglas-fir (15.5%). Southern pine
exports were up 0.5% YTD relative to 2016, while Doug-fir exports were down
9.9%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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