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Softwood
lumber exports extended their decline (25 MMBF or -15.6%) in June, joined by imports
(-3 MMBF or -0.2%). Exports were 18 MMBF (-11.6%) below year-earlier levels;
imports were 216 MMBF (+18.2%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net
export deficit was 234 MMBF (22.8%) larger. However, the average net export
deficit for the 12 months ending June 2018 was 7.2% smaller than the average of
the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the
graph above).
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North
America (of which Canada: 21.7%; Mexico: 16.4%) and Asia (especially China: 17.6%)
were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in June; the
Caribbean ranked third with an 18.7% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China
were +34.1% relative to the same months in 2017. Meanwhile, Canada was the source
of most (90.5%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from
Canada are 6.0% lower YTD than the same months in 2017. Overall, YTD exports
were up 13.2% compared to 2017, while imports were down 5.2%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the Eastern customs region represented
the largest proportion in June (35.7% of the U.S. total), followed closely by
the West Coast (34.3%) and the Gulf (21.0%) regions. However, Seattle maintained
its lead (21.5% of the U.S. total) over Mobile (13.9%) and Savannah (12.8%) as
the single most-active district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled
62.3% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (26.9%)
-- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 27.9% of all softwood lumber exports in June, Douglas-fir
(13.6%) and treated lumber (14.2%). Southern pine exports were up 23.2% YTD relative
to 2017, while treated: +0.2%; Doug-fir: -5.0%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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