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Softwood
lumber exports turned lower (24 MMBF or -16.6%) in September, along with imports
(29 MMBF or -2.2%). Exports were 28 MMBF (-19.0%) below year-earlier levels;
imports were 4 MMBF (+0.3%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net
export deficit was 32 MMBF (2.8%) larger. However, the average net export
deficit for the 12 months ending September 2018 was 0.8% smaller than the
average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown
in the graph above).
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North
America (of which Canada: 21.4%; Mexico: 19.8%) and Asia (especially China: 8.4%)
were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports; the Caribbean
ranked third with a 21.9% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were -2.5%
relative to the same months in 2017. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (92.1%)
of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 1.4%
lower
YTD than the same months in 2017. Overall, YTD exports were up 4.6% compared to
2017, while imports were down 0.3%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented
the largest proportion (35.5% of the U.S. total), followed by the Eastern
region (27.8%) and the Gulf (25.6%) regions. Moreover, Seattle maintained its lead
(19.4% of the U.S. total) over Mobile (15.0%) as the single most-active
district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 65.1% of
softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (29.3%) -- coming
into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 30.1% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (15.4%)
and treated lumber (11.5%). Southern pine exports were up 5.9% YTD relative to 2017,
while treated: -8.8%; Doug-fir: -7.5%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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