Sunday, July 4, 2021

May 2021 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports fell (11 MMBF or -9.5%) in May, while imports rose (83 MMBF or +5.7%). Exports were 21 MMBF (+24.7%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 456 MMBF (+41.7%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 435 MMBF (+43.2%) larger. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending May 2021 was 17.6% larger than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).

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North America (57.0%; of which Canada: 33.0%; Mexico: 23.9%), Asia (14.8%; especially China: 3.0%; and Japan: 3.8%), and the Caribbean: 22.9% especially the Dominican Republic: 6.2%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were -56.5% relative to the same months in 2020. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (85.9%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 19.2% higher YTD than the same months in 2020. Overall, YTD exports were up 6.0% compared to 2020; imports: +19.9%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 36.6% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 24.4%, and Eastern: 25.5%. Seattle (19.7% of the U.S. total) was the single most-active district, followed by Mobile (14.6%) and San Diego (14.3%). At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 56.4% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (23.1%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 19.0% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (14.2%) and treated lumber (19.3%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down 18.5% YTD relative to 2020, while Doug-fir: +1.5%; and treated: +14.0%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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