March 2024 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4% in March (+0.3% expected), the same increase as in February. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.5% before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 1.1% over the month. The food index rose 0.1% in March. The food at home index was unchanged, while the food away from home index rose 0.3% over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% in March, as it did in each of the 2 preceding months. Indexes which increased in March include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, recreation, and new vehicles were among those that decreased over the month.

The all-items index rose 3.5% for the 12 months ending March, a larger increase than the 3.2% increase for the 12 months ending February. The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8% over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 2.1% for the 12 months ending March, the first 12-month increase in that index since the period ending February 2023. The food index increased 2.2% over the last year.

 

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI-FD) rose 0.2% in March (+0.3% expected). Final demand prices moved up 0.6% in February and 0.4% in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1% for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3% for the 12 months ended April 2023.

The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3% rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1%.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2% in March after rising 0.3% in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8%.

Final Demand

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.3% in March, the third consecutive rise. Leading the broad-based March increase, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing advanced 0.2%. The indexes for final demand trade services and for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

Product detail: A major factor in the March increase in prices for final demand services was the index for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services, which rose 3.1%. The indexes for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling; airline passenger services; investment banking; deposit services (partial); and computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing also moved higher. Conversely, prices for traveler accommodation services decreased 3.8%. The indexes for automobiles retailing (partial) and for machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling also fell.

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods decreased 0.1% in March after rising 1.2% in February. The decline is attributable to the index for final demand energy, which moved down 1.6%. In contrast, prices for final demand foods and for final demand goods less foods and energy advanced 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively.

Product detail: Leading the March decline in the index for final demand goods, prices for gasoline decreased 3.6%. The indexes for chicken eggs, carbon steel scrap, jet fuel, and fresh fruits and melons also fell. Conversely, prices for processed poultry jumped 10.7%. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables, residential electric power, and motor vehicles also moved higher.

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The not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track were all higher on a MoM basis except for intermediate materials, but all lower YoY.

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purposes of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

February 2024 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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With February exports of goods and services at $263.0 billion (+2.3% MoM; +4.1% YoY) and imports at $331.9 billion (+2.2% MoM; +2.8% YoY), the net trade deficit was $68.9 billion (+1.9% MoM; -1.7% YoY). 

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Softwood lumber exports rose (10 MMBF or +10.2%) in February, along with imports (99 MMBF or +8.9%). Exports were 14 MMBF (+14.3%) above year-earlier levels; imports: 127 MMBF (+11.6%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 113 MMBF (+11.4%) higher. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending February 2024 was 7.5% below the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the lumber-trade graph above).

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North America (56.9% of total softwood lumber exports -- of which Mexico: 36.7%; Canada: 20.2%), Asia (15.1% -- especially India: 3.5%; Japan: 2.2%; China: 4.0%), and the Caribbean (21.0% -- especially the Dominican Republic: 10.7%; Bahamas: 2.1%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were 9.9% lower than the same month(s) of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (83.4%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 8.6% higher YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were up 7.9% compared to the prior year; imports: +0.4%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the Gulf customs region represented 40.2% of the U.S. total; West Coast: 28.2%, and Eastern: 22.0%. Mobile (18.8% of the U.S. total), San Diego (14.9%) Seattle (12.0%), and Laredo (15.7%) were the most active districts. At the same time, the Great Lakes customs region handled 57.1% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (16.9%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 30.7% of all softwood lumber exports; other pine (12.1%), Douglas-fir (12.9%), treated lumber (12.1%), and finger-jointed (9.7%) were also significant.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

March 2024 Employment Report

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) establishment survey showed nonfarm employers adding 303,000 jobs in March -- higher than the +200,000 expected and above the top end of the consensus range (+230,000). Also, January and February 2024 employment changes were revised up by a combined 22,000 (January: +27,000; February: -5,000).

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (based upon the BLS’s household survey) ticked down 0.1 percentage point, to 3.8%, as growth in the number of employed (+498,000) outpaced that of the labor force (+469,000). 

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Observations from the employment reports include:

* For a change the two surveys were in relative agreement, which supports their credibility.

* Goods-producing industries gained 42,000 jobs; service providers: +261,000. Job gains occurred in health care (+72,000), government (+71,000), construction (+39,000), and leisure and hospitality (+49,000). Total nonfarm employment (157.8 million) is now 5.8 million jobs above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020 (private sector: +5.42 million; public sector: +403,000). Nonetheless, employment is perhaps 4.5 million below its potential if accounting for growth in the working-age population since January 2006.

Manufacturing jobs were unchanged as a gain in durable goods (+4,000) was offset by a loss in nondurables. That result may be consistent with the change in the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing employment subindex, which rose closer to breakeven in March. Wood products manufacturing added 400 jobs (ISM unchanged); paper manufacturing: +400 (ISM decreased); construction: +39,000 (ISM increased).

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* The number of employment-age persons not in the labor force fell (-296,000) to 100.0 million (nearly 4.8 million above February 2020). Because the working-age civilian population expanded (+173,000) while the number of employed rose (+498,000), the employment-population ratio (EPR) ticked up fractionally to 60.3%, which is 0.8PP below its February 2020 level. 

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* Also, because the working-age civilian population rose by 173,000 while the labor force expanded by 469,000, the labor force participation rate also rose to 62.7%. Average hourly earnings of all private employees advanced by $0.12 (to $34.69), but the year-over-year increase decelerated to +4.1%. Because the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls lengthened to 34.4 hours, average weekly earnings rose (+$7.59) to $1,193.34 (+4.1% YoY). With the consumer price index running at an annual growth rate of +3.2% in February, the average worker appears to have gained purchasing power. 

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* Full-time workers slipped (-5,000) to 132.9 million; there are now over 2.1 million more full-time jobs than in February 2020. For perspective, however, the non-institutional working-age civilian population has expanded by 8.3 million during that period. Workers employed part time for economic reasons (shown in the graph above) -- e.g., slack work or business conditions, or could find only part-time work -- dipped by 68,000, while those working part time for non-economic reasons jumped (+593,000). Multiple-job holders: +217,000; there are now 455,000 more multi-job holders than in February 2020. 

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For a “sanity test” of the job numbers, we consult employment withholding/FICA taxes published by the U.S. Treasury. Although “noisy” and highly seasonal, the data show the amount withheld in March increased by $41.0 billion, to $319.7 billion (+14.7% MoM; +2.2% YoY). To reduce some of the monthly volatility and determine broader trends, we average the most recent three months of data and estimate a percentage change from the same months in the previous year; the average of the three months ending March was up 3.8% from the year-earlier average.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

March 2024 Monthly Average Crude Oil Price

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The monthly average U.S.-dollar price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil advanced by $4.03 (+5.2%) to $81.28/barrel in March. That increase occurred within the context of a marginally weaker U.S. dollar (broad trade-weighted index basis -- goods and services), the lagged impacts of January’s decline of 706,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the amount of petroleum products demanded/supplied (to 19.6 million b/d), and accumulated oil stocks that climbed seasonally higher -- (March 2024 average: 448 million barrels). 

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Selected highlights from the 29 March 2024 issue of OilPrice.com’s Oil & Energy Insider include:

“The oil markets are increasingly putting their trust into OPEC+ production cuts to remain in place throughout this year, a feat which combined with an improving macroeconomic outlook could bring $90 per barrel sooner than assumed,” wrote editor Michael Kern. “A better-than-expected Q4 for US GDP will most probably consolidate market expectations around a June interest rate cut, leaving behind the demand woes of early 2024.”

US SPR Replenishment Cost Increasingly More. The latest round of strategic petroleum stock replenishments in the US, totaling 2.8 million barrels in September, has seen the average price hit $81.32 per barrel, above the $79 per barrel threshold that the White House mandated for refilling crude SPRs.

Mexico's Crude Output Falls to Lowest Since 1979. Crude production of Mexico's state oil company Pemex fell to its lowest monthly level in 45 years this February, pumping 1.55 million b/d of oil, with the world's most indebted firm coming well below the government-set output target of 1.9 million b/d.

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

March 2024 ISM and S&P Global Surveys

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The Institute for Supply Management‘s (ISM) monthly sentiment survey of U.S. manufacturers reflected a return to expansion in the sector during March. The PMI registered 50.3%, up 2.5 percentage points (PP) from February’s reading. (50% is the breakpoint between contraction and expansion.) ISM’s manufacturing survey represents under 10% of U.S. employment and about 20% of the overall economy. Production expanded (+6.2PP, to 54.6%) and prices paid accelerated (+3.3%, to 55.8%) while inventories shrank more slowly (+2.9%, to 48.2%). 

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Concurrent activity in the services sector -- which accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment -- decelerated (-1.2PP, to 51.4%). Order backlogs fell into contraction (-5.5PP, to 44.8%), the increase in prices paid decelerated (-5.2PP, to 53.4%) and slow deliveries declined further (-3.5PP, 45.4%).

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Respondent comments included the following –

Construction. “National business conditions remain strong in the industrial construction market. Labor is still tight across the country for skilled trades positions.”

Paper Products. “As an energy-intensive manufacturer, energy pricing continues to be a concern for our business. The move to electrification has increased demand, and supply is not stable because we’re not in an ideal geography for wind and solar power.”

Wood Products. “Business activity is up. Many manufacturers are anticipating better business in the second quarter and much better in the third quarter. They are reporting that second-quarter bookings are just starting to ramp up.”

 

Changes in S&P Global‘s headline index value for manufacturing dipped -0.3PP, to 51.9, “pointing to a slightly less pronounced improvement at the end of the opening quarter of the year.” Also, the services sector “ticked down to a three-month low of 51.7 in March from 52.3 in February.” Details from S&P Global’s surveys follow --

Manufacturing. Factory output growth hits 22-month high in March.

Key findings:

• Sharper rises in output and employment
• New orders continue to increase, but at softer pace
• Output price inflation quickens for fourth month running

 

Services. Growth of activity sustained at end of first quarter.

Key findings:

• Further rises in output and new orders, but rates of growth ease
• Pace of job creation moderates
• Selling price inflation at eight-month high

 

Commentary by Chris Williamson, S&P Global’s chief business economist --

Manufacturing. “The final reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI signaled a further encouraging improvement in business conditions in March, adding to signs that the US economy looks to have expanded at a solid pace again in the first quarter.

“A key development in recent months has been the broadening-out of the upturn from services to manufacturing, with reviving demand for goods driving the fastest increase in factory production since May 2022. Jobs growth has also picked up as firms boost capacity to meet demand. Rising capex spending has likewise buoyed orders for machinery and equipment, in a further sign of firms gaining confidence in the outlook.

“The upturn is, however, being accompanied by some strengthening of pricing power. Average selling prices charged by producers rose at the fastest rate for 11 months in March as factories passed higher costs on to customers, with the rate of inflation running well above the average recorded prior to the pandemic. Most notable was an especially steep rise in prices charged for consumer goods, which rose at a pace not seen for 16 months, underscoring the likely bumpy path in bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.”

 

Services. “The US service sector reported a further rise in business activity in March, adding to signs that the economy enjoyed robust growth in the first quarter. Combined with an acceleration of growth in the manufacturing sector, the latest services PMI data point to GDP having risen at an approximate 2% annualized rate in the first three months of the year.

“Confidence in the outlook for the coming year has also lifted higher, which should help to sustain solid growth into the second quarter.

“The sustained upturn is being accompanied by renewed upward price pressures, however, with wage growth in particular driving costs higher. Rising raw material and fuel prices are also adding to cost burdens, which is in turn driving average selling prices for goods and services higher at a rate not seen since July of last year. Both manufacturers and services providers alike are seeing intensifying cost and selling price inflation rates, which is likely to feed through to higher consumer price inflation in the near term.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

February 2024 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and New & Unfilled Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments in February increased $8.0 billion or 1.4% to $581.6 billion. Durable goods shipments increased $3.3 billion or 1.2% to $282.6 billion, led by transportation equipment. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased $4.7 billion or 1.6% to $299.0 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Shipments of wood products fell 1.0%; paper: +0.1%.

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Inventories increased $2.3 billion or 0.3% to $857.7 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.47, down from 1.49 in January. Inventories of durable goods increased $1.7 billion or 0.3% to $528.7 billion, led by transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories increased $0.6 billion or 0.2% to $329.1 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Inventories of wood products were essentially unchanged; paper: +0.4%.

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New orders increased $8.2 billion or 1.4% to $576.8 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders rose by $5.3 billion or 1.1% (+3.5% YoY). Durable goods orders increased $3.5 billion or 1.3% to $277.7 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business investment spending -- increased by $0.5 billion or +0.7% (+3.0% YoY). New orders for nondurable goods increased $4.7 billion or 1.6% to $299.0 billion.

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Unfilled durable-goods orders increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $1,392.8 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 7.10, down from 7.17 in January. Real (inflation-adjusted) unfilled orders, which -- prior to the pandemic -- had been a good litmus test for potential sector growth, show a more-muted picture; in real terms, unfilled orders in June 2014 were back to 104% of their December 2008 peak. Real unfilled orders then jumped to 110% of the prior peak in February 2015, thanks to the largest-ever batch of aircraft orders. Real unfilled orders trended lower through 2020, but now seem to be exhibiting a quickening trend.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

March 2024 Currency Exchange Rates

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In March, the monthly average value of the U.S. dollar (USD) appreciated against two of the three currencies we track: Canada’s “loonie” (+0.3%) and the Japanese yen (+0.1%) but depreciated against the euro (-0.7%). On the broad trade-weighted index basis (goods and services) the USD weakened by 0.3% against a basket of 26 currencies. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.