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According
to the U.S.
Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments increased $1.4
billion or 0.3 percent to $494.9 billion in March. This was at the highest
level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and
followed a 0.9 percent February increase. Shipments of durable goods increased
$2.8 billion or 1.2 percent to $237.1 billion, led by transportation equipment.
Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments decreased $1.4 billion or 0.6 percent to
$257.9 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Wood shipments rose by 1.1
percent while Paper shipments slipped by -0.1 percent.
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Inventories
increased $0.6 billion or 0.1 percent to $643.1 billion (the highest level
since the series was first published on a NAICS basis). The
inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.30, unchanged from February.
Inventories
of durable goods increased $1.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $393.3 billion, led
by transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories decreased $0.6
billion or 0.2 percent to $249.7 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Wood
inventories rose by 0.6 percent, while Paper followed behind with a 0.4 percent
increase.
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New
orders increased $5.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $493.9 billion; excluding
transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Durable goods orders increased
$6.7 billion or 2.9 percent to $236.0 billion, led by transportation equipment.
New orders for nondurable goods decreased $1.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $257.9
billion.
As
can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new orders have been
essentially flat since early 2012, and have recouped a little more than
two-thirds the losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession.
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Unfilled
durable-goods orders increased $6.9 billion or 0.6 percent to a new nominal
high of $1,069.3 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled
orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.44, down from 6.49 in February. Real unfilled
orders, a good litmus
test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms,
unfilled orders have regained less than 70 percent of the ground given up during
the Great Recession.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely
for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not
constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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