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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Saturday, February 7, 2015

December 2014 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports decreased by 2 MMBF (-1.8%) in December (the smallest volume since September 2012) while imports fell by 59 MMBF (5.9%). Exports were 29 MMBF (19.7%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 161 MMBF (18.0%) higher. 
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The rest of North America (i.e., Canada and Mexico) was once again the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in November (45.9%). Asia (especially China and Japan) was a distant second (32.7%). Canada was also the largest single-country destination (24.0%). Year to date (YTD), exports to China were -13.0% relative to the same period in 2013 (down from roughly +11% YOY as recently as September). Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (95.3%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 2.7% compared to the same period in 2013, while imports were up 11.1%. 
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Despite the port slowdown, U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts increased in December (to roughly 39% of the U.S. total, from 35% in November); Seattle retained the title of most-active district, with 25.7% of the December total. At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled over 70% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 32%) coming into the United States. 
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Southern yellow pine comprised 22.7% of all softwood lumber exports in December, followed by Douglas-fir with 16.3%. YTD, southern pine exports were up 23.4% relative to the same months in 2013, while Douglas-fir exports were down 20.5%.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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