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Softwood
lumber exports turned lower (26 MMBF or -17.1%) in November, along with imports
(168 MMBF or -13.0%). Exports were 26 MMBF (-17.1%) below year-earlier levels;
imports were 220 MMBF (-16.3%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net
export deficit was 194 MMBF (-16.3%) smaller. Also, the average net export
deficit for the 12 months ending November 2018 was 3.0% smaller than the
average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown
in the graph above).
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North
America (39.5%; of which Canada: 22.0%; Mexico: 17.5%) and Asia (27.9%; especially
China: 9.9%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports; the
Caribbean ranked third with a 25.9% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China
were -14.1% relative to the same months in 2017. Meanwhile, Canada was the source
of most (88.7%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from
Canada were 4.2% lower YTD than the same months in 2017. Overall, YTD exports
were up 2.1% compared to 2017, while imports were down -2.5%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented
the largest proportion (32.5% of the U.S. total), followed by the Gulf region (30.7%)
and the Eastern (27.0%) regions. Moreover, Mobile (22.1% of the U.S. total) extended
its lead over Seattle (19.8%) as the single most-active district. At the same
time, Great Lakes customs region handled 64.0% of softwood lumber imports --
most notably the Duluth, MN district (26.2%) -- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 25.7% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (13.9%)
and treated lumber (12.0%). Southern pine exports were up 1.6% YTD relative to 2017,
while treated: -10.7%; Doug-fir: -8.8%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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