July 2019 Monthly Average Crude Oil Price

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The monthly average U.S.-dollar price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edged higher in July, advancing by $2.70 (+4.9%), to $57.36 per barrel. The increase occurred within the context of a marginally weaker U.S. dollar, the lagged impacts of a 147,000 barrel-per-day (BPD) rise in the amount of oil supplied/demanded during May (to 20.3 million BPD), and a decline in accumulated oil stocks (July average: 449 million barrels). 

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The editors of Peak Oil Review are vacationing during August. 

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Selected highlights from the 2 August 2019 issue of OilPrice.com’s Oil & Energy Insider include:

Oil prices fell by 7% on Thursday (1 August), the worst single-day performance in over four years. President Trump’s surprise announcement that he would put a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports caused a widespread selloff in equities and oil prices. China said that it would retaliate if the tariffs go into effect. Trump left open the possibility that the U.S. could hold off, but only if China offered concessions.

Oil rebounds. With a selloff as steep as the one seen on Thursday, it was unsurprising that traders bought on the dip. Oil was up 3% in early trading on Friday (2 August).

Energy stocks melt down. With oil down 7%, nobody in the energy sector was spared. Many companies saw their share prices fall 7 or 8%, some fared better but others posted even deeper loses. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (or XLE) fell more than 2%.

Concho misses earnings. Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO) reported a surprise 25% decline in quarterly profit on Wednesday, mostly due to lower oil and gas prices. Concho said its Permian wells were spaced too close together, and the company said it would slow the pace of development. Concho’s share price fell by 22% on Thursday.

Iran exports plunge, perhaps down to 100,000 bpd. Iran’s oil exports plunged to just 100,000 bpd in July, although there is a dispute over the accuracy of that data. If true, volumes are down sharply from the 400,000 bpd in June. Meanwhile, the Iranian government approved a plan to lop off a few zeros from its currency and rename it amid bad inflation.

Libyan production falls below 1 mb/d. Libya’s oil production fell to just 950,000 bpd after the Sharara field went offline for the second time in as many weeks. The outage is a sign of deteriorating security as the 4-month civil war drags on.

OPEC production falls to 8-year low. OPEC production fell to just 29.42 mb/d in July, down 280,000 bpd from June. Voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and steep losses from Iran contributed to the lower figure.

Trump considers quarantine of Venezuela. When asked if he was considering a blockade or quarantine of some kind of Venezuela, President Trump said: “Yes, I am.” He did not offer any further details.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.