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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Saturday, October 8, 2022

August 2022 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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With August exports of goods and services at $258.9 billion (-0.3% MoM; +20.0% YoY) and imports at $326.3 billion (-1.1% MoM; +13.6% YoY), the net trade deficit was $67.4 billion (-4.3% MoM; -5.6% YoY). 

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Softwood lumber exports rose (16 MMBF or +14.3%) in August, along with imports (98 MMBF or +7.5%). Exports were 21 MMBF (-14.0%) below year-earlier levels; imports: 111 MMBF (+8.6%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 132 MMBF (+11.5%) larger. However, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending August 2022 was 7.6% below the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the lumber-trade graph above).

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North America (53.2% of total softwood lumber exports; of which Mexico: 29.0%; Canada: 24.3%), Asia (14.1%; especially Japan: 4.5%), and the Caribbean: 21.0% especially the Dominican Republic: 8.5%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China (2.6% of U.S. total) were -52.1% relative to the same month of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (83.4%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 5.6% lower YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were up 1.2% compared to the prior year; imports: -3.1%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 31.7% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 31.6%, and Eastern: 26.2%. Seattle (14.9% of the U.S. total), Mobile (16.1%), San Diego (13.9%) and Laredo (8.7%) were among the most active districts. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 57.3% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (23.5%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 21.9% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (15.7%), treated lumber (13.9%), other pine (10.2%) and finger-jointed (8.2%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down 11.0% YTD/YTD, while Doug-fir: +17.3%; treated: +14.9%; other pine: (-1.9%); and finger-jointed: +4.4%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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