January 2024 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% in January (+0.2% expected), after rising 0.2% in December. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.1% before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6% and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all-items increase. The food index increased 0.4% in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4% and the food away from home index rose 0.5% over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9% over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% in January. Indexes which increased in January include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care. The index for used cars and trucks and the index for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.

The all-items index rose 3.1% for the 12 months ending January, a smaller increase than the 3.4% increase for the 12 months ending December. The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.9% over the last 12 months, the same increase as for the 12 months ending December. The energy index decreased 4.6% for the 12 months ending January, while the food index increased 2.6% over the last year.

 

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3% in January (+0.1% expected). Final-demand prices declined 0.1% in December 2023 and advanced 0.1% in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 0.9% for the 12 months ended January 2024.

In January, the advance in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.6% rise in prices for final-demand services. In contrast, the index for final-demand goods decreased 0.2%.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.6% in January 2024, the largest advance since moving up 0.6% in January 2023. For the 12 months ended January 2024, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.6%.

Final Demand

Final-demand services: The index for final-demand services moved up 0.6% in January, the largest increase since rising 0.8% in July 2023. In January, most of the advance is attributable to prices for final-demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which climbed 0.8%. The index for final-demand trade services moved up 0.2%. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, prices for final-demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.4%.

Product detail: A 2.2% increase in the index for hospital outpatient care was a major factor in the January rise in prices for final-demand services. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, machinery and equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, traveler accommodation services, and legal services also moved higher. In contrast, prices for long-distance motor carrying decreased 1.0%. The indexes for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing and for engineering services also moved lower.

Final-demand goods: The index for final-demand goods moved down 0.2% in January, the fourth consecutive decline. Most of the January decrease is attributable to a 1.7% drop in prices for final-demand energy. The index for final-demand foods fell 0.3%. Conversely, prices for final-demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.3%.

Product detail: Leading the January decline in the index for final-demand goods, prices for gasoline fell 3.6%. The indexes for electric power; hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds; beef and veal; ethanol; and iron and steel scrap also moved lower. In contrast, prices for communication and related equipment increased 2.4%. The indexes for soft drinks and for liquified petroleum gas also moved higher.

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The not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track were all higher on a MoM basis and all lower YoY.

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purposes of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.