The
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (based upon the BLS’s household survey) ticked down 0.1 percentage point, to 3.8%, as growth in the number of employed (+498,000) outpaced that of the labor force (+469,000).
Observations from the employment reports include:
* For a change the two surveys were in relative
agreement, which supports their credibility.
*
Goods-producing industries gained 42,000 jobs; service providers: +261,000. Job
gains occurred in health care (+72,000), government (+71,000), construction (+39,000),
and leisure and hospitality (+49,000). Total nonfarm employment (157.8 million)
is now 5.8 million jobs above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020 (private sector:
+5.42 million; public sector: +403,000). Nonetheless, employment is perhaps 4.5
million below its potential if accounting for growth in the working-age
population since January 2006.
Manufacturing jobs were unchanged as a gain in durable goods (+4,000) was offset by a loss in nondurables. That result may be consistent with the change in the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing employment subindex, which rose closer to breakeven in March. Wood products manufacturing added 400 jobs (ISM unchanged); paper manufacturing: +400 (ISM decreased); construction: +39,000 (ISM increased).
* The number of employment-age persons not in the labor force fell (-296,000) to 100.0 million (nearly 4.8 million above February 2020). Because the working-age civilian population expanded (+173,000) while the number of employed rose (+498,000), the employment-population ratio (EPR) ticked up fractionally to 60.3%, which is 0.8PP below its February 2020 level.
* Also, because the working-age civilian population rose by 173,000 while the labor force expanded by 469,000, the labor force participation rate also rose to 62.7%. Average hourly earnings of all private employees advanced by $0.12 (to $34.69), but the year-over-year increase decelerated to +4.1%. Because the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls lengthened to 34.4 hours, average weekly earnings rose (+$7.59) to $1,193.34 (+4.1% YoY). With the consumer price index running at an annual growth rate of +3.2% in February, the average worker appears to have gained purchasing power.
* Full-time workers slipped (-5,000) to 132.9 million; there are now over 2.1 million more full-time jobs than in February 2020. For perspective, however, the non-institutional working-age civilian population has expanded by 8.3 million during that period. Workers employed part time for economic reasons (shown in the graph above) -- e.g., slack work or business conditions, or could find only part-time work -- dipped by 68,000, while those working part time for non-economic reasons jumped (+593,000). Multiple-job holders: +217,000; there are now 455,000 more multi-job holders than in February 2020.
For a “sanity test” of the job numbers, we consult
employment withholding/FICA taxes published by the U.S. Treasury.
Although “noisy” and highly seasonal, the data show the amount withheld in March
increased by $41.0 billion, to $319.7 billion (+14.7% MoM; +2.2% YoY). To
reduce some of the monthly volatility and determine broader trends, we average
the most recent three months of data and estimate a percentage change from the
same months in the previous year; the average of the three months ending March was
up 3.8% from the year-earlier average.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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