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The
Census Bureau reported that seasonally
adjusted retail spending increased by $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent (besting expectations
of a 0.6 percent drop) during April as consumers apparently used cash left in
their pockets from cheaper gas to purchase other items. A downwardly revised
March estimate of -0.5 percent probably helped the April estimate beat
expectations.
“Lower
gasoline prices and the current low-inflation environment in general are
helping to offset the impact of higher taxes and encourage households to raise
spending in other areas,” economist Andrew Grantham of CIBC World Markets told
MarketWatch.
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Once
again, however, the majority of the rise in April’s estimate can be attributed
to seasonal adjustments, as non-seasonally adjusted sales fell
in every category except home-improvement stores (Building Material &
Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers). Cells with a yellow background in the
figure above indicate a decline from the previous month; green indicates an
increase from the previous month. In fact April’s seasonal adjustment factor was
the third-largest
for that month of the past decade.
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Accounting
for inflation and population growth, retail sales showed a small drop. Sales
have yet to recover their November 2007 high; moreover, sales are only 1.2
percent above their January 2000 level.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors,
and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and
discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding
any investment.
