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According
to the
U.S.
Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments increased $4.9
billion or 1.0 percent to $494.6 billion in November. Shipments of durable
goods increased $4.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $238.3 billion (the highest
level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis), led by machinery.
Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased $0.8 billion or 0.3 percent to
$256.3 billion, led by petroleum and coal products.
Wood
shipments jumped by 1.2 percent while Paper shipments declined by 0.9 percent.
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Data
from the
Association
of American Railroads (
AAR) and the
American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) advance seasonally adjusted
For-Hire Truck Tonnage
Index help round out the picture on goods shipments. AAR reported a 20.7 percent
decrease in
not-seasonally adjusted rail shipments in November (relative to
October), but a 1.3 percent rise from a year earlier; on a trend-line basis,
total shipments were up 2.1 percent from a year earlier. Excluding coal
carloads, year-over-year shipments were up 5.3 percent. Seasonal adjustments reversed
the 20.7 percent October-to-November decrease to a 2.1 percent rise. Rail
shipments of forest-related products were higher in November than a year
earlier, thanks largely to a 8.0 percent rise in the Lumber & Wood Products
category. The ATA’s advance index showed a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent increase
in November.
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Inventories
increased $0.2 billion to $633.4 billion (also the highest level since the
series was first published on a NAICS basis). The inventories-to-shipments
ratio was 1.28, down from 1.29 in October.
Inventories
of durable goods increased $0.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $384.3 billion, led
by transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories decreased $0.6
billion or 0.2 percent to $249.1 billion, led by petroleum and coal products.
Wood inventories rose by 0.9 percent, and Paper inventories ticked up by 0.1
percent.
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New
orders increased $8.8 billion or 1.8 percent to $497.9 billion; excluding
transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Durable goods orders increased
$8.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $241.6 billion, led by transportation equipment.
New orders for nondurable goods increased $0.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $256.3
billion.
As
can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new orders have been
essentially flat since early 2011, and have recouped a little more than
two-thirds the losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. The
trend since early 2013 seems to be on a rising trajectory.
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Unfilled
durable-goods orders increased $10.4 billion or 1.0 percent to a new nominal
high of $1,058.5 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled
orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.42, up from 6.39 in October. Real unfilled
orders, a good
litmus
test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms,
unfilled orders have regained just 60 percent of the ground given up since the
Great Recession began.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
