December 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $44.3 billion in December, down $1.5 billion from $45.7 billion in November. December exports were $190.7 billion, $5.0 billion more than November exports. December imports were $235.0 billion, $3.6 billion more than November imports.

The December decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $1.2 billion to $65.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $21.4 billion.

For 2016, the goods and services deficit increased $1.9 billion, or 0.4%, from 2015. Exports decreased $51.7 billion or 2.3%. Imports decreased $49.9 billion or 1.8%.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas

The December figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.1), South and Central America ($1.0), Singapore ($0.9), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.2), European Union ($12.9), Japan ($6.8), Germany ($5.2), Mexico ($4.6), Italy ($2.8), India ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), Canada ($1.5), Taiwan ($1.0), OPEC ($1.0), France ($0.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2).

* The deficit with Canada decreased $1.7 billion to $1.5 billion in December. Exports increased $1.0 billion to $22.4 billion and imports decreased $0.7 billion to $23.8 billion.

* The deficit with Mexico decreased $1.2 billion to $4.6 billion in December. Exports increased $1.6 billion to $20.7 billion and imports increased $0.5 billion to $25.2 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume expanded by 2.8% in October (+2.7% year-over-year) while prices fell by 0.7% (-0.4% YoY). October’s price index was 21.8% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly (but inversely) correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

November 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $45.2 billion in November, up $2.9 billion from $42.4 billion in October. November exports were $185.8 billion, $0.4 billion less than October. Imports were $231.1 billion, $2.4 billion more than October.

The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.4 billion to $66.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $21.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $4.9 billion, or 1.1 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $56.6 billion or 2.7 percent. Imports decreased $61.4 billion or 2.4 percent.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas

The November figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.5), South and Central America ($2.4), Singapore ($1.0), Brazil ($0.8), and United Kingdom ($0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.4), European Union ($13.8), Japan ($5.7), Mexico ($5.7), Germany ($5.3), Canada ($3.2), Italy ($2.2), South Korea ($2.2), OPEC ($1.9), India ($1.8), Taiwan ($1.3), France ($1.3), and Saudi Arabia ($0.2).

* The deficit with Canada increased $1.5 billion to $3.2 billion in November. Exports decreased $0.7 billion to $21.3 billion and imports increased $0.9 billion to $24.5 billion.

* The deficit with the European Union increased $0.9 billion to $13.8 billion in November. Exports decreased $1.3 billion to $21.0 billion and imports decreased $0.4 billion to $34.8 billion.

* The surplus with Brazil increased $0.7 billion to $0.8 billion in November. Exports increased $0.7 billion to $3.2 billion and imports decreased less than $0.1 billion to $2.4 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume shrank 1.1% in October (-0.7% year-over-year) while prices rose by 0.4% (-1.8% YoY). October’s price index was 21.1% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly (but inversely) correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

September 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $36.4 billion in September, down $4.0 billion from $40.5 billion in August. September exports were $189.2 billion, $1.0 billion more than August exports. September imports were $225.6 billion, $3.0 billion less than August imports.

The September decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $2.6 billion to $57.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $1.4 billion to $21.1 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $9.2 billion (2.5%) from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $60.5 billion (3.5%). Imports decreased $69.7 billion (3.3%).

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas

The September figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.5), South and Central America ($1.8), United Kingdom ($0.9), Singapore ($0.7), and Brazil ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($26.9), European Union ($11.7), Japan ($5.4), Germany ($5.3), Mexico ($4.8), Italy ($2.8), India ($2.2), South Korea ($1.4), OPEC ($1.2), France ($0.8), Taiwan ($0.5), Canada ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1).

* The deficit with China decreased $2.2 billion to $26.9 billion in September. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $10.2 billion and imports decreased $2.1 billion to $37.1 billion.

* The deficit with France decreased $1.2 billion to $0.8 billion in September. Exports increased $0.6 billion to $2.9 billion and imports decreased $0.6 billion to $3.7 billion.

* The balance with Saudi Arabia shifted from a surplus of $0.8 billion in August to a deficit of $0.1 billion in September. Exports decreased $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion and imports decreased $0.1 billion to $1.6 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume increased 1.5% in August (+0.7% year-over-year) while prices rose by 0.8% (-2.4% YoY). August’s price index was 20.9% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly (but inversely) correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

August 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $40.7 billion in August, up $1.2 billion from $39.5 billion in July, revised.  August exports were $187.9 billion, $1.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $228.6 billion, $2.6 billion more than July imports.

The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of less than $0.1 billion to $60.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.2 billion to $19.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $4.3 billion, or 1.3 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $62.4 billion or 4.1 percent. Imports decreased $66.8 billion or 3.6 percent.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas

The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.4), South and Central America ($1.7), Saudi Arabia ($0.8), Singapore ($0.7), United Kingdom ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.2), European Union ($12.3), Japan ($5.7), Germany ($5.3), Mexico ($5.2), South Korea ($2.5), Italy ($2.4), France ($2.0), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), Canada ($1.1), and OPEC ($0.3).

* The surplus with Hong Kong increased $0.4 billion to $2.4 billion in August. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $3.0 billion and imports increased less than $0.1 billion to $0.7 billion.

* The balance with Saudi Arabia shifted from a deficit of $0.2 billion to a surplus of $0.8 billion in August. Exports increased $1.3 billion to $2.5 billion and imports increased $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.

* The deficit with France increased $1.0 billion to $2.0 billion in August. Exports decreased $0.6 billion to $2.3 billion and imports increased $0.4 billion to $4.3 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume decreased 1.1% in July (-0.9% year-over-year) while prices fell by 1.0% (-4.1% YoY). July’s price index was 21.4% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly (but inversely) correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

July 2016 International Trade (Pulp, Paper & Paperboard)

Month-over-Month (MoM), Year-over-Year (YoY), and Year-to-Date (YTD):

On a month-to-month basis, July’s net exports increased for the first time since April 2016, increasing 104.9 thousand tonnes (6.8%): 1,551 to 1,656 thousand tonnes. July’s net exports were the fourth highest level of the year. Details for July, the prior six months, year-over-year, and year-to-date performance are presented in the table below.

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Despite the MoM increase in net exports in July, both exports and imports decreased; exports declined by 8.1 thousand tonnes (-0.3%), and imports 113.0 thousand tonnes (-13.2%). Net exports increased because the decrease in exports was less than the decrease in imports.

July exports were down 188 thousand tonnes YoY and imports down 82 thousand tonnes, resulting in a YoY decrease in net exports of 106 thousand tonnes (-6.0%).

Exports are down 99 thousand tonnes YTD while imports are up 50 thousand tonnes, yielding an decrease in net exports of 149 thousand metric tonnes (-1.3%). On a YTD basis 2016 net exports (11,712 thousand tonnes) achieved the fourth highest level since 2006, 8.8% below the peak level of 12,847 thousand tonnes in 2011.

This year’s increase in imports and decrease in exports is consistent with a generally strong U.S. dollar (on trade-weighted basis 6.9% off peak level in 2002:02; for example see August 2016 Currency Exchange Rates). Further, the fact 2016’s YTD net exports are down 1.3% compared to 2015’s West Coast port strike/slowdown-impacted levels underscores a soft global economy. The graph below shows monthly, including a YTD monthly average (first data point of each line in graph below), from 2011 to 2016. 

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Six-month Cumulative Activity and Trends:

Cumulative activity over the six months ending July 2016 shows net exports are 6.0% below the pace seen over the same months in 2015. Cumulative six-month net exports are lower due principally to lower exports, down 188 thousand tonnes (-7.3%), compared to imports which are down 82 thousand tonnes (-10.0%).

Six-month trend-lines were fit to the data to study recent trends beyond simple cumulative activity.  Two of the three trend lines were negative for the six-month period ending in July with only the net export trend line flat. There was a notable slope change for imports from last month’s six-month trend where the trend ending in June was positively sloped but turned negative for the six-month trend ending in July. This could augur a downshift in U.S. economic activity if the trend continues. Meanwhile the net export six-month trend slope shifted from flat in June to slightly negative in July.

Apart from trend lines, thus far during 2016 May was the export peak for the year, June this year’s import peak, and April is 2016’s net export peak. July’s exports were 5.5% below May’s peak, July’s imports were 13.2% below June’s import peak, and July’s net exports were 7.2% below April’s net export peak. 

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Notable shifts in country-level details:

Pulp exports (15,896 thousand tonnes) are lower (-0.2%) compared to last year’s levels. Despite exports to China dropping by over 5%, it remains the chief destination of U.S. pulp by a wide margin in 2016, representing 56% of 2016 shipments; July 2015 YTD figures pegged exports to China at 58% of the U.S. total, indicating China’s share of U.S. pulp exports has declined in 2016 relative to 2015. Mexico continues to hold on as the second-ranked destination for U.S. pulp exports, representing 7.5% of 2015 exports compared to India’s 6.9% share. Pulp exports to both countries are up YTD: Mexico’s receipt of U.S. pulp exports has increased 10.4% and India’s are up 13.2%. Indonesia has pushed past Japan as claiming the sixth largest share of U.S. pulp exports by climbing nearly 21% thus far in 2016. 

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2016 pulp imports (3,656 thousand tonnes YTD) increased 3.8% compared to 2015’s comparable YTD levels. Canada and Brazil, the 1^st and 2^nd ranked pulp import sources, respectively, account for 94% of the pulp imported. Both have posted increases during 2016: Canada an increase of 4.8% and Brazil an increase of 3.3%. Chile, the number three ranked source of pulp imports into the U.S., has declined by 5.8%. Sweden has climbed from number five on the list in 2015 to number four on the list in 2016 on a 7.3% increase in imports while Mexico, which was number four in 2015, has seen imports decline by 12%. The Philippines are up by 89% YTD while continuing to hold onto the number six position. Finland’s imports have more than doubled, pushing it into the top 10 sources for pulp imports into the U.S. As a region Africa shows the largest percentage increase at 89.7%, followed closely by Asia at 60.7%. 

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Paper and paperboard imports (1,847 thousand tonnes) have dropped by 4.2% in 2016 compared to 2015’s activity. Once again Canada leads the way, providing nearly 83% of the total import volume, while posting a 7.9% drop and accounting for 159.3% of the YTD decrease (130 of 82 thousand tonnes). Finland and China changed positions with one another for the number 2 and 3 rankings as China’s 41.7% increase added over 21 thousand tonnes while Finland’s 5.6% decline deducted nearly 4 thousand tonnes from each respective country’s YTD totals. Among the top 10 import sources, Australia posted a 49.2% gain, Sweden a 59.7% gain, and Chile a 212.6% gain. Among the top 20 countries Germany posted the largest loss at 32.3%. Chile and Taiwan both increased in their ranking among the top 10 while South Korea fell back from 8th to 10th place.  Regionally, Latin American imports grew by 67.6%, Oceania by 48.5%, and Asia by 24.9% while North America, by far the largest import source, fell by 7.3%. 

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Paper and paperboard exports (1,319 thousand tonnes) dropped by 4.7% YTD 2016. Canada, the number 1 ranked destination for U.S. paper and paperboard exports, holds a slim lead over Mexico, the number 2 ranked destination; exports to Canada have dropped by 0.4% in 2016 compared to 2015 YTD while Mexico has dropped by 4.8 percent. Among 2015’s Top 10 destinations, the “loss leader” in 2016 is India (-33 thousand tonnes, -53.2%, dropping from 4th ranked in 2015 to 10th ranked in 2016 ) followed by Taiwan (-3,602 tonnes, -9.7%, dropping from 5th to 8th). Bucking the general decline in paper and paperboard exports, the following countries showed strong growth thus far in 2016: Japan (+11.8%), Costa Rica (+44.3%), Guatemala (+13.8%), South Korea (+8.2%), Honduras (+44.3%), Colombia (+22.5%), United Kingdom (+15.3%), Hong Kong (+79.4%) and Ecuador (+44.5%). On a regional basis, only the Caribbean and Latin American regions posted increases U.S. paper and paperboard imports. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

July 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $39.5 billion in July, down $5.2 billion from $44.7 billion in June. July exports were $186.3 billion, $3.4 billion more than June exports. July imports were $225.8 billion, $1.8 billion less than June imports.

The July decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $5.3 billion to $60.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.9 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $0.5 billion, or 0.2%, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $63.7 billion or 4.8%. Imports decreased $64.2 billion or 4.0%.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas

The July figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.6), Hong Kong ($2.0), Singapore ($0.9), Brazil ($0.6), and United Kingdom ($0.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.4), European Union ($11.8), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.3), Mexico ($5.2), South Korea ($2.3), India ($2.2), Italy ($1.8), Taiwan ($1.2), France ($1.0), OPEC ($0.9), Canada ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.2).

* The balance with the United Kingdom shifted from a deficit of $0.2 billion in June to a surplus of $0.5 billion in July. Exports increased $0.1 billion to $4.7 billion and imports decreased $0.6 billion to $4.2 billion.

* The deficit with France decreased $0.6 billion to $1.0 billion in July. Exports increased $0.5 billion to $2.9 billion and imports decreased $0.2 billion to $3.9 billion.

* The deficit with China increased $1.4 billion to $29.4 billion in July. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $9.8 billion and imports increased $1.8 billion to $39.2 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume increased 0.7% in June (less than +0.1% year-over-year) while prices rose by 0.1% (-5.2% YoY). June’s price index was 21.0% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly (but inversely) correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $44.5 billion in June, up $3.6 billion from $41.0 billion in May, revised.  June exports were $183.2 billion, $0.6 billion more than May exports. June imports were $227.7 billion, $4.2 billion more than May imports.

The June increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.8 billion to $66.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $21.5 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $5.8 billion, or 2.3 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $54.2 billion or 4.7 percent. Imports decreased $60.0 billion or 4.3 percent.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly

The June figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.6), South and Central America ($2.3), Singapore ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.4). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.0), European Union ($12.7), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.6), Mexico ($4.7), South Korea ($2.5),  Italy ($2.3), India ($2.0), France ($1.6), OPEC ($1.2), Taiwan ($1.1), Canada ($0.6), Saudi Arabia ($0.5), and United Kingdom ($0.2).

* The deficit with Japan increased $1.0 billion to $6.0 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.4 billion to $5.0 billion and imports increased $0.6 billion to $11.0 billion.

* The deficit with the European Union increased $0.8 billion to $12.7 billion in June. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $22.9 billion and imports increased $1.7 billion to $35.6 billion.

* The deficit with Mexico decreased $0.8 billion to $4.7 billion in June. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $19.0 billion and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $23.7 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume decreased 0.4% in May (+0.8% year-over-year) while prices declined by less than 0.1% (-6.8% YoY). May’s price index was 22.1% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

May 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $41.1 billion in May, up $3.8 billion from $37.4 billion in April, revised. May exports were $182.4 billion, $0.3 billion less than April exports. May imports were $223.5 billion, $3.4 billion more than April imports.

The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.7 billion to $62.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $21.1 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $7.2 billion, or 3.5 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $47.2 billion or 4.9 percent. Imports decreased $54.3 billion or 4.7 percent.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly

The May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.9), Hong Kong ($1.9), Singapore ($0.5), and Brazil ($0.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.3), European Union ($11.9), Germany ($5.5), Mexico ($5.5), Japan ($5.0), Italy ($2.6), India ($2.1), South Korea ($2.0), Taiwan ($1.2), France ($1.1), Canada ($0.9), OPEC ($0.4), United Kingdom ($0.3), and Saudi Arabia ($0.2).
* The deficit with China increased $1.7 billion to $28.3 billion in May. Exports decreased $0.1 billion to $9.3 billion and imports increased $1.6 billion to $37.6 billion.
* The balance with the United Kingdom shifted from a surplus of $0.7 billion to a deficit of $0.3 billion in May. Exports decreased $1.2 billion to $4.0 billion and imports decreased $0.2 billion to $4.3 billion.
* The deficit with Japan decreased $0.9 billion to $5.0 billion in May. Exports increased $0.6 billion to $5.4 billion and imports decreased $0.3 billion to $10.4 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume increased 0.6% in April (+1.4% year-over-year) while prices rose by 1.8% (-5.3% YoY). April’s price index was 22.1% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

February 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $47.1 billion in February, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January, revised.  February exports were $178.1 billion, $1.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $225.1 billion, $3.0 billion more than January imports.

The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $64.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $17.7 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $10.8 billion, or 13.1 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $20.5 billion or 5.5 percent. Imports decreased $9.7 billion or 2.1 percent.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly

The February figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.7), OPEC ($1.9), Saudi Arabia ($1.3), and Brazil ($0.4).  Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($32.1), European Union ($10.6), Japan ($5.4), Germany ($5.2), Mexico ($5.1), South Korea ($2.8), India ($2.4), Italy ($2.4), France ($1.5), Canada ($1.0), and United Kingdom ($0.5).

* The deficit with China increased $1.0 billion to $32.1 billion in February. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $8.4 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $40.5 billion.

* The balance with Saudi Arabia shifted from a deficit of $0.2 billion to a surplus of $1.3 billion in February. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $2.3 billion and imports decreased $0.6 billion to $1.0 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume decreased 0.4% in January (+1.1% year-over-year) while prices tumbled by 3.9% (-12.16% YoY). January’s price index was 25.9% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

January 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $45.7 billion in January, up $1.0 billion from $44.7 billion in December, revised.  January exports were $176.5 billion, $3.8 billion less than December exports. January imports were $222.1 billion, $2.8 billion less than December imports.

The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.1 billion to $63.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $18.0 billion.

Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $2.1 billion (4.8%), from January 2015. Exports decreased $12.5 billion (6.6%). Imports decreased $10.5 billion (4.5%).

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas
The January figures show surpluses (in billions of dollars) with South and Central America ($3.1) and Brazil ($0.6).  Deficits were recorded with China ($31.1), European Union ($12.6), Germany ($5.8), Japan ($5.6), Mexico ($5.6), South Korea ($2.9), Italy ($2.4), India ($2.3), France ($1.5), Canada ($0.5), Saudi Arabia ($0.2), OPEC ($0.2), and United Kingdom ($0.1).

* The deficit with China increased $1.4 billion to $31.1 billion. Exports increased less than $0.1 billion to $8.6 billion and imports increased $1.5 billion to $39.8 billion.

* The deficit with Mexico increased $0.8 billion to $5.6 billion. Exports decreased less than $0.1 billion to $19.5 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $25.1 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume were essentially unchanged in December (+0.6% year-over-year) while prices rose by 0.3% (-10.6% YoY).

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

December 2015 International Trade (Pulp, Paper & Paperboard)

Month-over-Month (MoM), Year-over-Year (YoY), and Year-to-Date (YTD):

On a month-to-month basis, December's net exports increased for the first time since August 2015, rising by 57.6 thousand tonnes (3.7%) -- from 1,557 to 1,614 thousand tonnes.  December's net exports were the eighth highest level of the year.  Details for December, the prior six months, year-over-year, and year-to-date performance are presented in the table below.

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Both exports and imports increased between November and December: exports by 72.2 thousand tonnes (3.1%) and imports by 14.6 thousand tonnes (2.0%).  Net exports increased because the increase in exports was greater than the increase in imports.

December YoY exports were down 103 thousand tonnes and imports down 83 thousand tonnes, resulting in a YoY decrease in net exports of 19 thousand tonnes (-1.2%). 

YTD exports are up 493 thousand tonnes while imports are down 507 thousand tonnes, yielding an increase in net exports of 1,001 thousand tonnes (5.3%).  2015 net exports achieved the third highest level since 2005. 

This year's decline in imports and increase in exports is counterintuitive with reported stronger 2015 U.S. growth compared to global growth and a strengthening U.S. dollar.  The graph below shows monthly, including a YTD monthly average (first data point of each line in graph below), from 2010 to 2015. 

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While the West Coast port slowdown may explain some of the early 2015 results, and 2Q results reflect some degree of "catch-up" from the port slowdown, the annual results suggest other factors are responsible.

Six-month Cumulative Activity and Trends:

Cumulative activity over the six months ending December 2015 shows net exports are 6.1% above the pace seen over the six months ending in December 2014.  Cumulative six-month net exports are principally higher due to higher exports, up 228 thousand tonnes (1.6%), compared to imports which are down 339 thousand tonnes (6.9%). 

Six-month trend-lines were fit to the data to study recent trends beyond simple cumulative activity.   All three trend lines remained negative for the six-month period ending in December. 

Apart from trend lines, in 2015 May was the export peak, June the import peak, and May the net export peak.  December's exports were 10.3% below May's export peak; December's imports were 11.1% below June's import peak; and December's net exports were 14.5% below May's net export peak. 

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In terms of notable shifts in country-level details:

Pulp exports (26,898 thousand tonnes 2015) are higher (2.0%) compared to last year's levels.  China remained the chief destination of U.S. pulp by a wide margin in 2015, representing 58% of 2015 shipments; December 2014 figures pegged exports to China at 56% of the U.S. total, indicating China's share of U.S. pulp exports has grown in 2015 relative to 2014.  China's 2015 exports have increased by 5.3% compared to the same period in 2014.  Mexico leapfrogged India as the second-ranked destination for U.S. pulp exports, representing 6.7% of 2015 exports compared to India's 6.4% share.  Pulp exports to both countries are down YTD: Mexico's receipt of U.S. pulp export have fallen by over 4% and India's are down by nearly 9%.  In addition to Mexico and India swapping spots in 2015, among 2014's top 10 destinations Japan and Indonesia also swapped, Japan moving up from number 7 to number 6 by purchasing 6.4% more pulp while Indonesia has purchased 7.3% less pulp.  

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2015 pulp imports (6,036 thousand tonnes YTD) decreased -4.9% compared to 2014's levels.  Canada and Brazil, the 1st and 2nd ranked pulp import sources, respectively, account for nearly 94% of the pulp imported.  Despite their top ranking, Canada has logged a decline (-6.6%) in pulp imported while Brazil has decreased (-0.3%) its imports compared to 2014's levels.  Chile, the number three ranked source of pulp imports into the U.S., has increased imports by 1.3%.  Norway has climbed from a 10th ranked place in 2014 to 8th in 2015 with an over 114% increase in pulp imports to the U.S., the Philippines from 12th ranked in 2014 to 6th ranked in 2015 with an increase over 300%, and Germany from 13th ranked to 10th ranked.  For the year China (9th in 2014, 12th in 2015) and Finland (8th in 2014, 11th in 2015) have fallen out of the top 10 importers of pulp into the US.  As a region Asia shows the largest percentage increase in imports into the U.S. at 59.7% while Caribbean nations collectively posted the largest percentage decline at 86.6%. 

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2015 Paper and paperboard imports (3,197 thousand tonnes ) dropped by 5.8% compared to 2014's activity.  Once again Canada led the way, accounting for nearly 86% of the total import volume and 114.2% of the YTD decrease (223 of 196 thousand tonnes).  Finland and China held onto their number 2 and 3 rankings despite posting respective 5.5% and 2.3% decreases in 2015 compared to 2014.  One notable development on a percentage basis is Australia, which has vaulted from being the 7th ranked supplier during the first ten months of 2014 to the 4th ranked supplier during 2015, posting an increase of 136.3%.  Mexico slipped from the 4th to 5th place ranking despite importing 15.8% more into the U.S.  In other top 10 changes from 2014, Sweden has dropped from 5th in 2014 to 6th in 2015 with a 12.5% drop in paper and paperboard imports into the U.S and South Korea slipped from 6th to 8th with pulp and paperboard imports declining by over 46.9%.   Meanwhile Taiwan vaulted to the 9th ranked spot from 12th ranked in 2014 with an increase of 105.5% in imports shipped to the U.S. 

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Paper and paperboard exports (2,375 thousand tonnes) dropped by 1.5% during 2015.  Canada, the top-ranked destination for U.S. paper and paperboard exports, holds a slim lead over Mexico, the number 2 ranked destination, despite exports to Canada dropping by 0.3% in 2015 compared to 2014 while Mexico has grown by 16.1 percent from 2014 to 2015.  Among 2014's top 10 destinations, the "loss leader" in 2015 is India (-31 thousand tonnes, -23.6%) from 2014, followed by Costa Rica (-25 thousand, -31.9%) and Japan (-13 thousand tonnes, -7.9%).  Bucking the general decline in paper and paperboard exports, as already noted, Mexico's receipts of U.S. paper and paperboard exports is up.  South Korea (+10.2%), Guatemala (+3.9%), and China (+9.1%) are receiving more U.S. exports of paper and paperboard as well.  

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

December 2015 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $43.4 billion in December, up $1.1 billion from $42.2 billion in November. December exports were $181.5 billion, $0.5 billion less than November exports. December imports were $224.9 billion, up $0.6 billion from November.

The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.3 billion to $62.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.2 billion.

The December figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.8), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Brazil ($0.2).  Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.7), European Union ($13.3), Germany ($6.4), Japan ($6.3), Mexico ($4.8), South Korea ($2.5), Italy ($2.2), India ($2.0), France ($1.4), Canada ($1.4), Saudi Arabia ($0.5), and OPEC ($0.2).

* The balance with members of OPEC shifted from a surplus of $1.1 billion to a deficit of $0.2 billion in December. Exports decreased $1.2 billion to $5.2 billion and imports increased $0.1 billion to $5.4 billion.

* The deficit with Germany increased $0.8 billion to $6.4 billion in December. Exports decreased less than $0.1 billion to $4.1 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $10.5 billion.

For 2015, the goods and services deficit was $531.5 billion, up $23.2 billion (+4.6%) from $508.3 billion in 2014. Exports were $2,230.3 billion in 2015, down $112.9 billion (-4.8%) from 2014. Imports were $2,761.8 billion in 2015, down $89.7 billion (-3.1%) from 2014.

The 2015 increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $17.5 billion or 2.4% to $758.9 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $5.7 billion or 2.4% to $227.4 billion.

As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit was 3.0% in 2015, up from 2.9% in 2014. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume contracted by 0.1% in November (+2.0% year-over-year) while prices fell by 1.3% (-12.8% YoY).

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

November 2015 International Trade (Pulp, Paper & Paperboard)

Month-over-Month (MoM), Year-over-Year (YoY), and Year-to-Date (YTD):

On a month-to-month basis, November's net exports posted the third consecutive monthly decline, dropping 51.8 thousand tonnes (-3.2%): 1,608 to 1,557 thousand tonnes. November's net exports were the second lowest level of the year thus far, supplanting October for that title and pushing it third lowest for the year. While February was lower than September, October, and November net exports, both January and March, it was likely impacted by the West Coast port slowdown. Details for November, the prior six months, year-over-year, and year-to-date performance are presented in the table below.

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Both exports and imports fell between November and October; exports decreased by 138.1 thousand tonnes (-5.7%) and imports decreased by 86.4 thousand tonnes (-10.5%). The reason net exports fell is because the decline in exports was greater than the decline in imports.

On a year-over-year basis November exports were down 76.2 thousand tonnes and imports up 25.1 thousand tonnes, resulting in a year-over-year decrease in net exports of 101.3 thousand tonnes (-6.1%).

On a year-to-date basis exports are up 596 thousand tonnes while imports are down 424 thousand tonnes, yielding an increase in net exports of 1,020 thousand metric tonnes (5.9%). Net exports are on track to achieve the third highest level since 2005.

The year-to-date decline in imports and increase in exports is counterintuitive with reported stronger 2015 US growth compared to global growth and a strengthening U.S. dollar. As noted in prior repots, this trend has been consistently evident from April 2015's YTD through October 2015's YTD results; in the seven months of reported data since April four of the seven have been the second highest month of net exports since 2005 and two have been the third highest month. However, this pattern was broken in October when October 2015's monthly result ranked as the seventh highest monthly total of eleven since 2005. November improved modestly, increasing to the sixth highest monthly total of eleven Novembers since 2005. The graph below shows monthly, including a YTD monthly average (first data point of each line in graph below), from 2010 to 2015. 

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While the West Coast port slowdown may explain some of the early 2015 results, and 2Q results reflect some degree of "catch-up" from the port slowdown, the YTD results suggests other factors are responsible for the YTD performance.

In particular, the reduction in YTD imports might suggest US economic activity may not be as strong as is generally believed. With a strong U.S. dollar and active U.S. growth compared to global growth the expectation would be imports would increase to support U.S. domestic economic growth. Cheap oil should have made such an outcome even more likely. The most notable drop in imports is from Canada. The bulk of the YTD increase in exports was driven by exports to China, suggesting China's economic slowdown has not yet adversely impacted sectors consuming pulp. More country by country details are covered below.

Six-month Cumulative Activity and Trends:

Cumulative activity over the six months ending November 2015 shows net exports are 7.1% above the pace seen over the six months ending in November 2014. Cumulative six-month net exports are principally higher due to higher exports, up 451 thousand tonnes or 3.2 percent, compared to imports which are down 211 thousand tonnes, or 4.3 percent.

Six-month trend-lines were fit to the data to study recent trends beyond simple cumulative activity. All three trend lines remained negative for the six-month period ending in November.

Apart from trend lines, thus far in 2015 May was the export peak, June the import peak, and May the net export peak. November's exports were 12.8% below May's export peak, November's imports were 13.0% below June's import peak, and November's net exports were 17.5% below May's net export peak. 

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In terms of notable shifts in country-level details:

Pulp exports (24,720 thousand tonnes YTD) are higher (2.6%) compared to last year's YTD levels. China remains the chief destination of U.S. pulp by a wide margin, representing 58% of YTD shipments; November 2014 YTD figures pegged exports to China at 56% of the U.S. total, indicating China's share of US pulp exports has grown in 2015 relative to 2014. China's exports have increased by 6.9% YTD compared to the same period in 2014. Mexico leapfrogged India as the second-ranked destination for U.S. pulp exports, representing 6.7% of YTD exports compared to India's 6.3% share. Pulp exports to both countries are down YTD: Mexico's receipt of U.S. pulp export have fallen by over 4% and India's are down by nearly 12%. In addition to Mexico and India swapping spots in 2015, among 2014's top 10 destinations Japan and Indonesia also swapped, Japan moving up from number 7 to number 6 by purchasing 5.1% more pulp YTD while Indonesia has purchased 7.6% less pulp YTD. 

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Pulp imports (5,537 thousand tonnes YTD) decreased -4.2% compared to prior YTD levels. Canada and Brazil, the 1st and 2nd ranked pulp import sources, respectively, account for nearly 94% of the pulp imported. Despite their top ranking, Canada has logged a decline (-7.1%) in pulp imported while Brazil has increased (+2.9%) its imports compared to prior YTD levels. Chile, the number three ranked source of pulp imports into the U.S., has increased its imports YTD by nearly 2%. Norway has climbed from a 10th ranked place in 2014 to 8th in 2015 with an over 330% increase in pulp imports to the U.S., the Philippines from 12th ranked in 2014 to 7th ranked in 2015 with an increase over 260%, and Germany from 13th ranked to 10th ranked. On a YTD basis China (9th in 2014, 11th in 2015) and Finland (8th in 2014, 12th in 2015) have fallen out of the 10 ten importers of pulp into the US. As a region Asia shows the largest percentage increase in imports into the U.S. at 44.6% while Caribbean nations collectively posted the largest percentage decline at 87.0%. 

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Paper and paperboard imports (2,944 thousand tonnes YTD) have dropped by nearly 6% year-to-date compared to prior YTD activity. Once again Canada leads the way, accounting for nearly 86% of the total import volume and 117.5% of the YTD decrease (215 of 183 thousand tonnes). Finland and China held onto their number 2 and 3 rankings despite posting 2.2% and 3.7% decreases YTD, respectively. One notable development on a percentage basis is Australia, which has vaulted from being the 7th ranked supplier during the first ten months of 2014 to the 4th ranked supplier during the first ten months of 2015, posting an increase of 161.6%. Mexico slipped from the 4th to 5th place ranking despite importing 14.8% more into the U.S. YTD. In other top 10 changes from 2014, Swedan has dropped from 5th in 2014 to 6th in 2015 with a 7.7% drop in paper and paperboard imports into the U.S and South Korea slipped from 6th to 8th with pulp and paperboard imports declining by over 50%. Meanwhile Taiwan vaulted to the 9th ranked spot from 12th ranked in 2014 with an increase of 171.9% in imports shipped to the U.S. 

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Paper and paperboard exports (2,188 thousand tonnes) dropped by 1.2% on a YTD basis. Canada, the number 1 ranked destination for U.S. paper and paperboard exports, holds a slim lead over Mexico, the number 2 ranked destination, despite exports to Canada dropping by 0.4% YTD compared to 2014 while Mexico has grown by 18.9 percent 2014 to 2015 YTD. Among 2014's Top 10 destinations, the "loss leader" in 2015 is India (-34 thousand tonnes, -27.4% from prior YTD) followed by Costa Rica (-23 thousand, -31.5% from prior YTD), and Japan (-14 thousand tonnes, -9.4% from prior YTD). Bucking the general decline in paper and paperboard exports, as already noted, Mexico's receipts of U.S. paper and paperboard exports is up. South Korea (+12.0%) and China (+9.1%) are both receiving more U.S. exports of paper and paperboard as well. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

November 2015 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in November, down $2.2 billion from $44.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $182.2 billion, $1.6 billion less than October exports. November imports were $224.6 billion, $3.8 billion less than October imports.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.2 billion (5.5%), from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $99.0 billion (4.6%). Imports decreased $73.7 billion (2.8%).

The November figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.7), OPEC ($1.1), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), United Kingdom ($0.3), and Brazil ($0.1).  Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.2), European Union ($12.8), Japan ($5.6), Germany ($5.5), Mexico ($5.4), Italy ($2.4), South Korea ($2.3), India ($2.1), France ($2.1), and Canada ($0.9).

   * The deficit with Mexico decreased $0.9 billion to $5.4 billion. Exports decreased $0.9 billion to $18.8 billion and imports decreased $1.8 billion to $24.2 billion.

   * The surplus with members of OPEC increased $0.7 billion to $1.1 billion. Exports increased $1.3 billion to $6.5 billion and imports increased $0.6 billion to $5.4 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume contracted by 0.5% in October (+0.5% year-over-year) while prices rose by 0.3% (-12.6% YoY).

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.