July 2016 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $39.5 billion in July, down $5.2 billion from $44.7 billion in June. July exports were $186.3 billion, $3.4 billion more than June exports. July imports were $225.8 billion, $1.8 billion less than June imports.

The July decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $5.3 billion to $60.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.9 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $0.5 billion, or 0.2%, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $63.7 billion or 4.8%. Imports decreased $64.2 billion or 4.0%.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas

The July figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.6), Hong Kong ($2.0), Singapore ($0.9), Brazil ($0.6), and United Kingdom ($0.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.4), European Union ($11.8), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.3), Mexico ($5.2), South Korea ($2.3), India ($2.2), Italy ($1.8), Taiwan ($1.2), France ($1.0), OPEC ($0.9), Canada ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.2).

* The balance with the United Kingdom shifted from a deficit of $0.2 billion in June to a surplus of $0.5 billion in July. Exports increased $0.1 billion to $4.7 billion and imports decreased $0.6 billion to $4.2 billion.

* The deficit with France decreased $0.6 billion to $1.0 billion in July. Exports increased $0.5 billion to $2.9 billion and imports decreased $0.2 billion to $3.9 billion.

* The deficit with China increased $1.4 billion to $29.4 billion in July. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $9.8 billion and imports increased $1.8 billion to $39.2 billion. 

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume increased 0.7% in June (less than +0.1% year-over-year) while prices rose by 0.1% (-5.2% YoY). June’s price index was 21.0% below the August 2011 peak; price index changes are almost perfectly (but inversely) correlated with changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.