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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
Macro Pulse's timely yet in-depth coverage.


Tuesday, December 27, 2016

November 2016 Residential Sales, Inventory and Prices

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Sales of new single-family houses in November 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 592,000 units (580,000 expected). That was 5.2 percent (±14.1%)* above the revised October rate of 563,000 and 16.5 percent (±19.3%)* above the November 2015 estimate of 508,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted year-over-year comparison (shown in the table above) was +13.9%. For a longer-term perspective, November sales were 57.4% below the “bubble” peak and 21.6% below the long-term, pre-2000 average.
The median sales price of new houses sold in November rose to $305,400 (+$2,700 or 0.9%); the average sales price increased by $5,200 (1.5%) to $359,900. Starter homes (those priced below $200,000) comprised 14.6% of the total sold, up from November 2015’s record-low 11.1% for that calendar month (going back to 2002); prior to the Great Recession starter homes represented as much as 61% of total sales. Homes priced below $150,000 made up 2.4% of those sold in November, a further slide from November 2015’s previous record-low share of 2.8%.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. 
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As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in November, single-unit completions rose by 25,000 units (+3.3%). Because completions and sales were nearly balanced, new-home inventory expanded in absolute terms (+4,000 units) but shrank in months of inventory terms (-0.1 month). 
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Existing home sales increased by 40,000 units (+0.7%) in November, to 5.61 million units (SAAR), well above expectations of 5.35 million. Inventory of existing homes shrank in both absolute (-160,000 units) and months-of-inventory (-0.3 month) terms. Although existing-home sales outpaced those of new homes in November, the share of total sales comprised of new homes expanded to 9.5%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in November edged up by $800 (0.3%), to $234,900. 
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Housing affordability marginally improved as the median price of existing homes for sale in October fell by $3,200 (-1.4%; but +5.9 YoY), to $233,700. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic Home Price indices posted a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change of +0.2% (+5.6% YoY), bringing home prices to a new all-time high.
“Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers,” said David Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, mortgage interest rates rose in November and are expected to rise further as home prices continue to outpace gains in wages and personal income. Affordability measures based on median incomes, home prices and mortgage rates show declines of 20-30% since home prices bottomed in 2012. With the current high consumer confidence numbers and low unemployment rate, affordability trends do not suggest an immediate reversal in home price trends. Nevertheless, home prices cannot rise faster than incomes and inflation indefinitely.”
“After the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index bottomed in February 2012, its year-over-year growth accelerated to a peak rate of 10.9% in October 2013 and then gradually fell to its current rate of approximately 5%. During the same period, the highest year-over-year rate from any city was 29% in August and September 2013; currently the highest single city gain declined to approximately 11%. Both national and city growth in home prices slowed but remains above the growth rate of incomes and inflation.” 
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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Thursday, December 22, 2016

3Q2016 Gross Domestic Product: Third Estimate

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In its third estimate of 3Q2016 gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised growth of the U.S. economy to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of +3.53% -- up +0.38 percentage point from the second estimate, and up +2.11% from 2Q2016. On a year-over-year basis, which should eliminate any residual seasonality distortions, GDP was up 1.65% from 3Q2015. On that basis, growth in 3Q2016 improved by 0.38 percentage point compared to 2Q.
All groupings of GDP components -- personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private domestic investment (PDI), net exports (NetX), and government consumption expenditures (GCE) -- contributed to 3Q growth.
Improvement in the headline number (compared to the previous 3Q estimate) was broadly based: +0.14% came from higher consumer spending, +0.17% from more fixed investment spending, and +0.09 from additional governmental spending. None of the other changes were material, with the normally noisy inventory and import numbers completely unchanged. 
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Among the notable items in the report:
-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods increased to a +0.77% growth rate (although it is still down a material -0.74% from 2Q2016).
-- The contribution to the headline from consumer spending on services improved to +1.26% (which also remains down -0.11% from the prior quarter). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was +2.03%, down a significant -0.85% from 2Q.
-- The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was revised to a positive +0.02, breaking a three-quarter string of fixed investment contraction.
-- The contribution from inventories was unchanged, although still up a dramatic +1.65% from 2Q -- after a string of five consecutive quarters of contraction.
-- The positive headline contribution from governmental spending improved by +0.09% to +0.14%. This remained up an historically large +0.44% from the prior quarter, and it was entirely in Federal spending (state and local spending was still reported to be contracting). This momentary growth was almost certainly due to increased Federal fiscal year-end spending -- a recurring annual phenomenon that is accompanied by an offsetting fourth calendar quarter (first fiscal quarter) reversal of that growth.
-- The contribution to the headline number from exports softened slightly to +1.16% (down -0.02% in this revision but up +0.95% from the prior quarter).
-- Imports subtracted -0.31% from the headline number, unchanged in this revision but down -0.28% from the prior quarter.
-- The "real final sales of domestic product" was revised upward +0.38% to +3.04%, up a material +0.46% from the prior quarter. This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory growth.  
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

December 2016 Macro Pulse -- Housing Bump or Dump?

Residential construction in October got a “caffeine jolt” when total housing starts smashed expectations with a 25.5% month-over-month (MoM) surge to 1.323 million units -- a nine-year-high. Most of the jump was attributable to a 68.8% leap in the multi-family segment. That housing was “on a roll” appeared to be confirmed when the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose by seven points (to 70) in December, the highest reading since July 2005 and the largest MoM jump in over 20 years.
Click here to read the rest of the December 2016 Macro Pulse recap.

The Macro Pulse blog is a commentary about recent economic developments affecting the forest products industry. The monthly Macro Pulse newsletter typically summarizes the previous 30 days of commentary available on this website.

Friday, December 16, 2016

November 2016 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.090 million (1.230 million expected). This is 18.7 percent (±6.7%) below the revised October estimate of 1.340 million (originally 1.323 million). The multi-family segment led the decrease: -215,000 units (-45.1%), to 262,000 units. Single-family housing starts declined less dramatically, by 35,000, to 828,000 units; that was 4.1 percent (±7.5%)* below the revised October figure of 863,000.
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 
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November’s total SAAR was 6.9 percent (±7.3%)* below the November 2015 SAAR of 1.171 million units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was -7.9%. Single-family starts were 6.5% higher YoY, but the multi-family component was 32.8% lower. 
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Total housing completions in November rose by 162,000 units, or 15.4 percent (±13.5%), to a SAAR of 1.216 million. That was 25.0 percent (±15.0%) above the November 2015 SAAR of 973,000; the NSA comparison: +24.2% YoY.
Single-family housing completions advanced by 25,000 units, to a SAAR of 774,000; that is 3.3 percent (±8.3%)* above the revised October rate of 749,000 -- and +22.6% YoY. Multi-family completions rose by 137,000 units (+44.9% MoM, and +27.6% YoY). 
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Total permits fell by 59,000 units, or 4.7 percent (±1.1%), to a SAAR of 1.201 million (1.240 million expected). That was 6.6 percent (±2.6%) below the November 2015 SAAR of 1.286 million; the non-seasonally adjusted YoY comparison was -0.9%.
Single-family authorizations edged up by 4,000 units, or 0.5 percent (±1.4%)*, to a SAAR of 778,000 units; multi-family permits fell by 63,000 units (-13.0%), to 423,000. Single-family permits were 11.6% higher YoY; multi-family: -16.1%. 
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Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in December jumped seven points, to a level of 70, on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
“This notable rise in builder sentiment is largely attributable to a post-election bounce, as builders are hopeful that President-elect Trump will follow through on his pledge to cut burdensome regulations that are harming small businesses and housing affordability,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady.  “This is particularly important, given that a recent NAHB study shows that regulatory costs for home building have increased 29% in the past five years.” 
“Though this significant increase in builder confidence could be considered an outlier, the fact remains that the economic fundamentals continue to look good for housing,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The rise in the HMI is consistent with recent gains for the stock market and consumer confidence. At the same time, builders remain sensitive to rising mortgage rates and continue to deal with shortages of lots and labor.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

November 2016 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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The seasonally adjusted consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% (as expected) in November. The shelter and gasoline indexes continued to rise in November, and were again the main reasons for the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The shelter index advanced 0.3% in November, while the gasoline index increased 2.7%.
The food index was unchanged in November, as the index for food at home fell 0.1%, its seventh consecutive decline. The energy index increased 1.2%, although gasoline was the only major energy component index to increase over the month. 
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in November after rising 0.1% in October. The shelter index accounted for most of the increase, but the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, education, communication, and used cars and trucks also rose. The medical care index was unchanged over the month. Several indexes declined in November, including apparel, household furnishings and operations, airline fares, and new vehicles. 
The all items index rose 1.7% for the 12 months ending November; the 12-month all items increase has been rising since it was 0.8% in July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1% for the 12 months ending November, and the energy index increased 1.1%. In contrast, the food index declined 0.4% over the last 12 months.
The seasonally adjusted producer price index for final demand (PPI) increased 0.4% (+0.2% expected) in November. Final demand prices were unchanged in October and advanced 0.3% in September. In November 2016, over 80% of the advance in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.5% rise in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods increased 0.2%.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2% in November after edging down 0.1% in October. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 1.3% for the 12 months ended November 2016, the largest rise since moving up 1.3% for the 12 months ended November 2014. For the 12 months ended in November, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 1.8%, the largest rise since advancing 1.8% for the 12 months ended August 2014.
Final Demand
Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.5% in November, the largest rise since increasing 0.9% in January 2016. Over 80% of the November advance can be traced to margins for final demand trade services, which climbed 1.3%. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services both inched up 0.1%.
Product detail: A quarter of the November increase in prices for final demand services is attributable to margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing, which advanced 4.2%. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing; machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; food and alcohol retailing; food and alcohol wholesaling; and inpatient care also moved higher. In contrast, prices for guestroom rental fell 3.3%. The indexes for cleaning supplies and paper products retailing and for portfolio management also decreased. (See table 4.)
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.2% in November following a 0.4% increase in October. Leading the November advance, the index for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 0.2%. Prices for final demand foods also moved higher, climbing 0.6%. Conversely, the index for final demand energy declined 0.3%.
Product detail: In November, prices for iron and steel scrap jumped 11.4%. The indexes for beef and veal, fresh fruits and melons, pharmaceutical preparations, electric power, and cigarettes also increased. In contrast, gasoline prices fell 2.9%. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables and for light motor trucks also decreased. 
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The not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track were mixed on a MoM basis, but all positive on a YoY basis. 
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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

November 2016 Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Capacity

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Total industrial production (IP) declined 0.4% (-0.2% expected) in November after edging up 0.1% in October. In November, manufacturing output moved down 0.1%, and mining posted a gain of 1.1%. The index for utilities dropped 4.4%, as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced the demand for heating. At 103.9% of its 2012 average, total IP in November was 0.6% lower than its year-earlier level.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output edged down 0.1% in November and was just 0.1% above its level of a year earlier. In November, the production of durables decreased 0.3%, the production of nondurables rose 0.3%, and the production of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 0.7%. Among the major durable goods industries, primary metals recorded the largest gain, 2.3%, and motor vehicles and parts registered the largest drop, also 2.3%; wood products: +0.9%. Among nondurables, petroleum and coal products recorded the biggest increase, 3.3%, and a decrease of 1.4% for plastics and rubber products was the biggest loss; paper: -0.1%.
The index for mining advanced 1.1% in November. Most mining industries posted increases, with coal being the notable exception. The output at coal mines dropped 6.8% in November after having climbed nearly 60% between its April trough and October. Nevertheless, the index in November remained about 18% below its level in late 2014. 
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Capacity utilization (CU) for the industrial sector decreased 0.4%age point in November to 75.0%, a rate that is 5.0%age points below its long-run (1972–2015) average.
Capacity utilization for manufacturing edged down 0.1%age point in November to 74.8%, a rate that is 3.7%age points below its long-run average. The operating rate for durables dropped to 75.9% (wood products: +0.5%), the rate for nondurables moved up to 74.7% (paper: 0.0%), and the rate for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell to 60.0%. Utilization for mining jumped 1.1%age points to 78.2%; even so, it remained 9.1%age points below its long-run average. The rate for utilities fell 3.5%age points to 74.4%. 
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Capacity at the all-industries level nudged up 0.1% (+0.4% YoY) to 138.5% of 2012 output. Manufacturing (NAICS basis) inched up +0.1% (+0.8% YoY) to 138.0%. Wood products extended the upward trend that has been ongoing since November 2013 when increasing by 0.4% (+4.6% YoY) to 170.0%. Paper edged down 0.1% (-1.2% YoY) to 116.2%.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

November 2016 Monthly Average Crude Oil Price

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The monthly average U.S.-dollar price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil retraced October’s gain when falling by $4.30 (8.6%) in November, to $45.48 per barrel. The decrease coincided with a much stronger U.S. dollar, the lagged impacts of a 267,000 barrel-per-day (BPD) drop in the amount of oil supplied/demanded in September (to 19.9 million BPD), and a plateauing of accumulated oil stocks. It is noteworthy that, for the first time since the Great Recession, the year-to-date (through September) average volume of oil supplied/demanded is only on par with the same months in 2000. 
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Prices rocketed higher in early December (+14% by 12/2), in the wake of a surprise November 30 agreement by OPEC intended to cut overall cartel production by 1.2 million barrels per day (BPD)—the first deal to cut output since 2008. Key details of the agreement, which had been assigned only a 30% chance of succeeding, include a Saudi/Gulf Arab reduction of 800,000 BPD and another 90,000 BPD reduction from Russia while allowing Iran to increase output by 90,000 BPD.
For skeptics, the OPEC agreement has the hallmarks of a Hollywood remake. Past cuts have been largely ineffective because “we tend to cheat,” Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi admitted. “It’s much easier to coordinate an agreement than it is to enforce one,” agreed Troy Vincent, oil analyst at ClipperData, “and if history is any indicator, economic theory and cheating will play out as it always has.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

October 2016 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and New & Unfilled Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments increased $1.7 billion or 0.4% to $464.7 billion in October. Shipments of durable goods decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1% to $234.1 billion, led by transportation equipment. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased $2.0 billion or 0.9% to $230.7 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Shipments of Wood rose 1.0%, but Paper edged down by 0.1%. 
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Inventories increased $0.3 billion or virtually unchanged to $621.4 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.34, unchanged from September. Inventories of durable goods increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $383.7 billion, led by transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories increased $0.3 billion or 0.1% to $237.8 billion, led by chemical products. Inventories of Wood expanded by 0.2%, while Paper shrank 0.1%. 
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New orders increased $12.5 billion or 2.7% to $469.4 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.8% (but -0.2% YoY -- the 23rd month of year-over-year contractions out of the past 24). Durable goods orders increased $10.6 billion or 4.6% to $238.8 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for nondurable goods increased $2.0 billion or 0.9% to $230.7 billion. New orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business investment spending -- rose by 0.2% (but -4.2% YoY). Business investment spending has contracted on a YoY basis during all but two months since January 2015 (inclusive).
Prior to July 2014, as can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new orders had been essentially flat since early 2012, recouping on average 70% of the losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. With July 2014’s transportation-led spike gradually receding in the rearview mirror, the recovery in new orders is back to just 55% of the ground given up in the Great Recession. 
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Unfilled durable-goods orders increased $8.2 billion or 0.7% to $1,128.5 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.78, up from 6.70 in September. Real unfilled orders, which had been a good litmus test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms, unfilled orders in June 2014 were back to 97% of their December 2008 peak. Real unfilled orders jumped to 122% of the prior peak in July 2014, thanks to the largest-ever batch of aircraft orders. Since then, however, real unfilled orders have moved mostly sideways; not only are they back below the December 2008 peak, but they are also diverging further below the January 2010-to-June 2014 trend-growth line.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Monday, December 5, 2016

November 2016 Currency Exchange Rates

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In November the monthly average value of the U.S. dollar extended gains against all three major currencies we track. The greenback appreciated by 1.4% against Canada’s “loonie,” 2.1% against the euro, and 4.4% against the yen. On a trade-weighted index basis, the dollar strengthened by 2.4% against a basket of 26 currencies. 
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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

November 2016 ISM and Markit Reports

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The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) monthly opinion survey showed that the pace of expansion in U.S. manufacturing accelerated during November. The PMI registered 53.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. (50% is the breakpoint between contraction and expansion.) ISM’s manufacturing survey represents under 10% of U.S. employment and about 20% of the overall economy. Sub-indexes improved on average -- including order backlogs, which shrank more slowly. 
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The pace of growth in the non-manufacturing sector -- which accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment -- quickened as well. The NMI registered 57.2%, a 2.4 percentage point rise. All sub-indexes remained above the breakpoint. 
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Wood Products and Real Estate contracted; Paper Products, Construction and Ag & Forestry expanded. “We had almost [a] 9% jump month-over-month on active, secured projects in our variable side of business,” wrote one Construction respondent. “We also acquired new customers in [the] past two months.”
Relevant commodities --
* Priced higher: Diesel; gasoline; paper; corrugate; linerboard; corrugated boxes; lumber; and labor (both construction and general)
* Priced lower: Natural gas.
* Prices mixed: None.
* In short supply: Labor (both construction and general).

Consistency between ISM’s and IHS Markit’s surveys was fairly strong; manufacturing PMIs accelerated in both surveys. ISM’s NMI accelerated, while Markit’s services PMI -- although still expanding -- ticked lower.
Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist said:
Manufacturing -- “Both production and order books are growing at impressive rates, fueled predominantly by rising domestic demand for goods from both consumers and businesses. Companies are also rebuilding stock levels, suggesting the recent inventory drag is easing.
“The stronger dollar is hurting exporters, but the flip-side of the exchange rate appreciation is lower import costs, which have in turn helped to ameliorate the impact of rising global commodity prices compared to other countries.
“However, although employment rose, the survey found ongoing caution in respect to hiring new staff, linked in turn to uncertainty about the outlook and worries about rising costs.”

Services -- “The U.S. economy is seeing robust growth, with the business surveys pointing to encouragingly solid rates of expansion in both manufacturing and services.
“Looked at together, [Markit's manufacturing and services] PMI surveys point to the pace of economic growth holding steady on October’s 11-month high, indicating that GDP is set to rise by 0.6% (2.5% annualized) in the fourth quarter. Both sectors are benefiting primarily from stronger domestic demand.
“The solid business survey readings not only add to the widely held view that the Fed is near certain to raise interest rates at its December meeting, but also raise the prospect of more aggressive than previously anticipated interest rate hikes in 2017.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Friday, December 2, 2016

November 2016 Employment Report

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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) establishment survey, non-farm payroll employment added 178,000 jobs in November -- slightly above expectations of +170,000. Combined September and October employment gains were revised down by 2,000 (September: +17,000; October: -19,000). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (based upon the BLS’s household survey) fell to 4.6% -- pushed lower by a combination of employment gains (+160,000) and a shrinking labor force (-226,000). 
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Observations from the employment reports include:
* Claims of artificially inflated headline employment gains in November would be difficult to prove. Imputed jobs from the CES (birth/death model) adjustment were in line with the historical average for the month of November since 2000. Moreover, the BLS applied the largest negative seasonal adjustment to the base data of any November since 2000; had the average seasonal adjustment been applied, headline jobs gains might have exceeded 310,000.
* Manufacturing lost 4,000 jobs in November. That result is not entirely inconsistent with the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing employment sub-index, which expanded at a slower pace in November. Wood Products gained 700 jobs and Paper and Paper Products employment was unchanged. Construction employment rose by 19,000.
* Nearly 82% (127,700) of November’s private-sector job growth occurred in the sectors typically associated with the lowest-paid jobs -- Retail Trade: -8,300 (despite the start of the holidays); Professional & Business Services: +63,000; Education & Health Services: +44,000; and Leisure & Hospitality: +29,000. This is a persistent issue, as we have repeatedly highlighted: There are nearly 1.5 million fewer manufacturing jobs today than at the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, but over 1.7 million more Food Services & Drinking Places (i.e., wait staff and bartender) jobs. In fact, Manufacturing has lost 34,000 jobs since 2014 while FS&D jobs have expanded by 571,000. 
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* The number of employment-age persons not in the labor force jumped by 446,000 -- to a new record high near 95.1 million. Nonetheless, the employment-population ratio (EPR) was stable at 59.7 %; roughly speaking, for every five people added to the population, only three are employed. 
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* Although the EPR was unchanged, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) retreated to 62.7%, comparable to levels seen in the late-1970s. Average hourly earnings of all private employees declined by $0.03 (to $25.89), resulting in a 2.5% year-over-year increase. For all production and nonsupervisory employees (pictured above), hourly wages rose by $0.02, to $21.73 (+2.4% YoY). Although the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours, average weekly earnings edged down by $1.03, to $890.62 (+2.2% YoY). 
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* Full-time jobs edged up by 9,000 while those employed part time for economic reasons (PTER) -- e.g., slack work or business conditions, or could find only part-time work -- dropped by 220,000; so-called “voluntary” part-time employment, by contrast, jumped by 327,000. There are now 2.3 million more full-time jobs than the pre-recession high; for perspective, however, the non-institutional, working-age civilian population has risen by nearly 21.4 million). PTER employment, by contrast, stopped declining in October 2015 and has since been oscillating around 6 million. Those holding multiple jobs increased slightly (+61,000), nearly surpassing September’s post-recession peak of 7.9 million. 
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For a “sanity check” of the employment numbers, we consult employment withholding taxes published by the U.S. Treasury. Although “noisy” and highly seasonal, the data show the amount withheld in November fell by $4.1 billion, to $178.8 billion (still, a record for the month of November); that is also +1.0% YoY. To reduce some of the volatility and determine broader trends, we average the most recent three months of data and estimate a percentage change from the same months in the previous year. The average of the three months ending November was 4.5% above the year-earlier average, well off the peak of +13.8% set back in September 2013.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

October 2016 Construction Spending

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Construction spending during October 2016 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $1,172.6 billion, 0.5 percent (±1.5%)* above the revised September estimate of $1,166.5 billion (originally $1,150.0 billion); expectations were for +0.6%. The October figure is 3.4 percent (±1.8%) above the October 2015 SAAR of $1,134.4 billion. The not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the above table) was +2.4%.
During the first 10 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $972.2 billion, 4.5 percent (±1.0%) above the $930.7 billion for the same period in 2015.
PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION
Spending on private construction was at a SAAR of $885.9 billion, 0.2 percent (±0.8%)* below the revised September estimate of $887.4 billion.
- Residential: $466.2 billion, +1.6 percent (±1.3%);
- Nonresidential: $419.6 billion, -2.1 percent (±0.8%).
PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION
Public construction spending was $286.8 billion, 2.8 percent (±2.8%)* above the revised September estimate of $279.1 billion.
- Educational: $72.2 billion, +4.1 percent (±3.0%);
- Highway: $91.5 billion, +1.9 percent (±6.7%)*.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The U.S. Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. 
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Click here for a discussion of October’s new residential permits, starts and completions. Click here for a discussion of new and existing home sales, inventories and prices.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

3Q2016 Gross Domestic Product: Second Estimate

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In its second estimate of 3Q2016 gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “tinkered around the edges” when revising growth of the U.S. economy to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of +3.15% (in line with consensus expectations of 3.1%), up 0.24 percentage point from the previous 3Q estimate and also up +1.73 percentage points from 2Q2016.
All groupings of GDP components -- personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private domestic investment (PDI), net exports (NetX), and government consumption expenditures (GCE) -- contributed to 3Q growth.
Most of the improvement in the revised headline number came from a +0.42% bump to consumer spending. Spending on consumer goods was revised upward by +0.26%, and spending on consumer services was reported to be +0.16% better than previously thought. However, both of those estimates remain below the levels seen in 2Q (a combined -0.99% compared to 2Q). Moreover, the inventory growth rate was revised downward by -0.12% to +0.49%. Revisions to the other line items were of little consequence. 
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Recapping the report: 
-- Growth in consumer spending took a major quarter-to-quarter hit (down nearly a full percentage point).
-- Commercial fixed investment remains weak, and has now recorded four consecutive quarterly contractions.
-- Most of the QoQ improvements (as opposed to the 3Q revision) in the contributions to the headline number came from two especially noisy line items: inventories and exports. The QoQ swing in those two line items in aggregate represent +2.62% of the headline number. When the QoQ +0.35% increase in governmental spending is included, it could be argued that the vast majority of the 3.15% headline number is from either noisy data or simply borrowed from the next quarter.  
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.