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Exports
of pulp, paper and paperboard decreased by 24,000 metric tons (1.0 percent) in November.
Imports rose, but by a more modest 5,000 tonnes (0.7 percent). Exports were 76,000
tonnes (3.0 percent) below year-earlier levels while imports were 13,000 tonnes
(1.5 percent) higher. Net exports slid by 1.8 percent relative to October, and were
3.8 percent below November 2012. Year-to-date (YTD) net exports were running 5.8
percent behind the levels seen during the comparable period in 2012.
The
drop in November exports compared to October was led by Taiwan (a 23,000
tonne drop compared to total decline of 24,000 tonnes). November's increase in
imports was led by Canada
(a 23,000 tonne increase compared to total increase of 5,000 tonnes). Looking
at the cumulative net exports over the past six months through November, net
exports have fallen by just over 6 percent compared to the same six months one
year ago. Despite this, exports, imports, and net exports have all been
slightly increasing over the past six months on a trend line basis.
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Year-to-date
pulp exports (24.123 million tonnes through November) are down by 3.7 percent
compared to the same period in 2012. China remains the chief destination
of U.S.
pulp exports representing nearly 58 percent of total U.S. pulp exports YTD. Nevertheless
YTD pulp exports to China
have declined by 5 percent. Among the top 15 destinations for U.S. pulp
exports in 2013, Indonesia,
Taiwan,
and Belgium
have all logged significant percentage increases. In terms of rankings, Taiwan,
logging a 14.6 percent increase in year-to-date pulp exports receipts, switched
places from 11th to 10th with the Netherlands, which
posted a 20.8 percent drop in YTD pulp export receipts. Belgium, with
its 166.5 percent increase YTD, has jumped from the 20th ranked
destination in 2012 to the 13th ranked in 2013.
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YTD
paper and paper board exports (2.371 million tonnes through November) are up by
7.2 percent compared to the same period in 2012. Mexico and Canada are in
essentially a dead heat as destinations for U.S. paper and paperboard exports YTD
through November; Mexico
holds a slim lead at 22.4 percent of total U.S. exports while Canada checks
in at 22.0 percent. The notable change between these two countries between 2012
and 2013 is Canada's
receipt of U.S.
paperboard exports are up nearly 49 percent while U.S. paperboard exports to Mexico are up a
scant 0.6 percent year-to-date. The Canadian increase more than accounts for
the entire change seen in exports YTD. The top five ranked countries remain
identical between 2012 and 2013 and account for 64 percent of the total
exports; the top 20 countries account for nearly 89 percent of the total
exports. In terms of ranking among the top 20 in 2013, the largest ranking
improvement is Pakistan,
ranked 14th in 2013, up from 31st in 2012, with an over
300 percent increase in receipts of U.S. paper and paperboard exports. The
biggest decline in ranking is Venezuela,
dropping from 9th place in 2012 to 13th in 2013 on a 16.3
percentage drop on receipts of U.S.
paper and paperboard exports.
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YTD pulp imports (5.854 million
tonnes through November) are up by 4 percent compared to the same period in 2012.
Canada
remains the chief source of U.S.
pulp imports, representing nearly 65 percent of total YTD. However, while Canada has
posted a small decline on a percentage basis on a YTD basis (1.4 percent) the
next three countries in terms of rank all show significant increases in pulp
imports into the U.S.:
· Brazil, ranked 2nd in both 2012 and 2013 has
increased by 12.6 percent on a YTD basis;
· Chile, ranked 4th in 2012 and 3rd in
2013, has increased its imports by 148.1 percent;
· Mexico, despite falling from 3rd-ranked pulp
import source in 2012 to 4th place in 2013, increased YTD pulp
imports by 35.1 percent.
Sweden and France,
ranked 5th and 6th in both 2012 and 2013, respectively,
are showing double-digit percentage drops in pulp imports. The top six ranked
sources account for over 99 percent of 2013 pulp imports.
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YTD
paper and paperboard imports (2.919 million tonnes through November) are up by
4 percent compared to the same period in 2012. Canada remains the chief source of U.S. paper and
paperboard imports, representing over 89 percent of the total YTD. Given the
magnitude that Canadian imports represent of the total, no surprise the YTD
change for Canada
(3.5 percent) is close to the total change (4.0 percent). The top five ranked
countries between 2012 and 2013 remain the same; in fact, the only change in
ranking among the top 10 countries between both years is a switch between Germany (7th to
6th) and South
Korea (6th to 7th). Among
the top five ranked countries, which in aggregate represent 96 percent of total
imports, Finland
posted the largest percentage gain (42.1 percent) and Sweden the
largest percentage loss (10.8 percent). On a regional basis, after North America, the region of the world showing the
largest increase in paper and paperboard imports into the U.S. is Europe, with a 25 thousand tonne (22 percent) increase.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
