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Sales of new
single-family houses in November 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of (SAAR) 719,000 units (735,000 expected).
This is 1.3 percent (±11.0 percent)* above the revised October rate of 710,000
(originally 733,000) and 16.9 percent (±19.4 percent)* above the November 2018 SAAR
of 615,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison
(shown in the table above) was +18.2%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales
were 48.2% below the “housing bubble” peak and 0.5% below the long-term,
pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in November rose to $330,800 ($13,900 or +4.4%
MoM); meanwhile, the average sales price jumped to $388,200 ($10,300 or +2.7%).
Starter homes (defined here as those priced below $200,000) comprised 9.6% of
the total sold, down from the year-earlier 11.4%; prior to the Great Recession
starter homes represented as much as 61% of total new-home sales. Homes priced
below $150,000 made up 1.9% of those sold in November, down from 2.3% a year
earlier.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero.
The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude
that the actual change is different from zero.
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As
mentioned in our post
about housing permits, starts and completions in November, single-unit
completions increased by 39,000 units (+4.5%). Although sales ticked up (9,000
units; +1.3%) while completions fell, inventory for sale was unchanged in absolute
terms but shrank in months-of-inventory (-0.1 month) terms.
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Existing home sales
retreated in November (90,000 units or -1.7%), to a SAAR of 5.35 million units.
Inventory of existing homes for sale shrank in absolute (-130,000 units) and months-of-inventory
(-0.2 month) terms. Because new-home sales rose while resales fell, the share
of total sales comprised of new homes advanced to 11.8%. The median price of
previously owned homes sold in November inched up to $271,300 ($300 or +0.1%
MoM).
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Housing
affordability worsened (-1.3 percentage points) despite the median price of
existing homes for sale in October falling by $800 (-0.3%; +6.2 YoY), to $273,600.
Concurrently, Standard &
Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic
Home Price indices rose at a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change of +0.1% (+3.3%
YoY).
"October’s
U.S. housing data continue to be reassuring,” said Craig
Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at
S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With October’s 3.3% increase in the national
composite index, home prices are currently more than 15% above the
pre-financial crisis peak reached July 2006. October’s results were
broad-based, as both our 10- and 20-city composites rose. Of the 20 cities in
the composite, only San Francisco saw a year-over-year price decline in
October.
“At
a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the fifth consecutive month
with October’s 5.8% year-over-year gain. The Southeast region was also strong,
as Tampa, Charlotte, and Atlanta all rose by more than 4.0%.
“As
was the case last month, after a long period of decelerating price increases,
the national, 10-city, and 20-city composites all rose at a modestly faster
rate in October compared to September. This stability was broad-based,
reflecting data in 12 of 20 cities. It is, of course, still too soon to say
whether this marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the
longer-term trend.”
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The foregoing comments represent the general
economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the
purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation
or recommendation regarding any investment.
