November 2019 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,365,000 units (1.340 million expected). This is 3.2 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the revised October estimate of 1,323,000 (originally 1.314 million units) and 13.6 percent (±12.8 percent) above the November 2018 SAAR of 1,202,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was +13.5%.

Single-family housing starts were at a SAAR of 938,000; this is 2.4 percent (±5.8 percent)* above the revised October figure of 916,000 (+16.8% YoY). Multi-family starts: 427,000 units (+4.9% MoM; +7.6% YoY).

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 

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Total completions were at a SAAR of 1,188,000 units. This is 6.6 percent (±8.9 percent)* below the revised October estimate of 1,272,000 (originally 1.256 million units), but 7.3 percent (±14.8 percent)* above the November 2018 SAAR of 1,107,000 units; the NSA comparison: +6.7% YoY.

Single-family completions were at a SAAR of 883,000; this is 3.6 percent (±10.0 percent)* below the revised October rate of 916,000 (+12.6% YoY). Multi-family completions: 305,000 units (-14.3% MoM; -8.8% YoY). 

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Total permits amounted to a SAAR of 1,482,000 units (1.410 million expected). This is 1.4 percent (±1.4 percent)* above the revised October rate of 1,461,000 (originally 1.461 million units) and 11.1 percent (±1.8 percent) above the November 2018 SAAR of 1,334,000 units; the NSA comparison: +5.7% YoY.

Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 918,000; this is 0.8 percent (±1.3 percent)* above the revised October figure of 911,000 (+4.1% YoY). Multi-family: 564,000 (+2.5% MoM; +8.0% YoY). 

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Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to 76 in December off an upwardly revised November reading, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the highest reading since June of 1999.

“Builders are continuing to see the housing rebound that began in the spring, supported by a low supply of existing homes, low mortgage rates and a strong labor market,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

“While we are seeing near-term positive market conditions with a 50-year low for the unemployment rate and increased wage growth, we are still underbuilding due to supply-side constraints like labor and land availability,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Higher development costs are hurting affordability and dampening more robust construction growth.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.