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Total
housing starts in December
retreated to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR )
of 0.999 million units, down by 108,000 units (-9.8 percent) from November’s
peak of 1.107 million units -- the biggest fallback since April 2013. The drop
was about evenly split between single-family (-50,000 units, or -7.0 percent)
and multi-family (-58,000 units, or -14.9 percent) starts.
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The
drop in the not-seasonally adjusted data was more noticeable, and represented
the largest November-to-December retreat since 2007. Total starts fell by
18,500 units (22.0 percent) relative to November; single-family retreated by
8,800 units (-17.2 percent), while multi-family contributed 9,700 units (-29.4
percent). The year-over-year gain was cut back to just 4.0 percent.
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Completions
also “took a hit,” dropping by 90,000 units to 744,000 units (SAAR ).
Once again the components were roughly comparable, with the single-family segment contributing -49,000 (-8.2 percent) and the multi-family -41,000 (-17.4 percent).
Total completions were up 9.3 percent over year-earlier levels.
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Total
permits declined modestly in December, posting a 31,000 unit (-3.0 percent)
drop to 0.986 million units (SAAR ). All of the
retreat was contained in the single-family component (-4.8 percent). As a
forward-looking indicator, permits appear to be suggesting that the surge in residential
construction activity is waning. Year-over-year percentage changes have trended
lower throughout 2013 and (although higher than in November) were 11.5 percent
above December 2012 levels.
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The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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