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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

June 2011 U.S. Treasury Statement and Debt Overview

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Outlays of $292.7 billion and receipts of $49.7 billion added another $43.1 billion to the federal budget deficit in June, a month that typically sees revenue slightly exceeding outlays. The U.S. federal debt held by the public stood at $14.343 trillion at the end of June.
 
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Foreigners held $4.514 trillion, or a little less than one-third of the U.S. public debt at the end of May. China remained the largest foreign creditor ($1.160 trillion). The United Kingdom was the biggest buyer in both absolute ($13.5 billion) and percentage change (4.1 percent) terms. Holdings by the “other” (aggregated) category have been trending lower since last November, dropping $81 billion over that time period.
 
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The Federal Reserve put more distance between itself and both China and Japan during May in terms of U.S. Treasury holdings. Moreover, were the Fed to maintain its May rate of Treasury purchases for a year, it would nearly double its current holdings. Both China and Japan’s added modest amounts to their holdings.

More recent data shows the Fed has slowed purchases of U.S. Treasury debt since May, but still held nearly $1.6 trillion as of mid-June.

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Flows into the United States for all types of investments were overwhelmed by outflows in May, as evidenced by the sharp drop-off in three-month-average net inflows shown by the Treasury International Capital (TIC) accounting system. Net flows were -$67.5 billion in May.
 
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Short-term U.S. securities (e.g., T-bills) continued to decline in May. With the exception of October, foreign investors have been net sellers of short-term U.S. debt during every month since September 2010.
 
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Net inflows into long-term public debt were essentially stable (at $29.690 billion) in May. Purchases of private securities also jumped by less than $1 billion in May, to $14.888 billion.

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