June 2013 International Trade (Pulp, Paper & Paperboard)

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Exports of pulp, paper and paperboard decreased by 142,000 metric tons (5.9 percent) in June. Imports also fell, but by a more modest 66,000 tons (8.2 percent). Exports were 115,000 tons (4.8 percent) below year-earlier levels while imports were just 7,000 tons (less than 0.1 percent) lower. Net exports fell 4.8 percent relative to May, and by 6.6 percent from June 2012. On a year-to-date basis net exports were nearly 6 percent lower than the same six month period during 2012. 

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Year-to-date pulp exports are nearly 4 percent off the prior year’s pace. Year-to-date pulp exports to China represent nearly 60 percent of total U.S. pulp exports. The top ten destinations account for 87 percent of all pulp exports. Among the top 10 year-to-date pulp exports, Canada registered the largest year-over-year percentage loss in pulp exports and Taiwan registered the largest year-over-year percentage increase in pulp exports. 

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Year-to-date paper and paper board exports are up nearly 8 percent. Mexico still is the chief destination of U.S. paper and paperboard exports in 2013 but Canada is rapidly narrowing the gap. Other significant changes relative to 2012 year-to-date levels are in increase of 55 percent to the Dominican Republic, +26 percent to China, and +19 percent to Taiwan. Pakistan’s 2013 receipt of paper and paperboard from the United States is more than 10 times greater than the comparable period in 2012; June was no exception, with exports nearly 12 times June 2012’s level. 

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Year-to-date pulp imports are nearly 6 percent higher than the prior year’s level. Canada and Brazil account for 96 percent of total pulp imports in 2013. Brazil’s 2013 imports are 26.1 percent higher than 2012; Chile’s are a whopping 174.4 percent higher than in 2012, while Mexico’s are up 53.3 percent. Imports from Russia, which in June 2012 ranked as the 9^th highest pulp importer, have nearly disappeared in 2013, falling over 90 percent from 2012’s level. On the other hand, Indonesia had no pulp imports in 2012 but has vaulted into the 10^th ranked pulp importer year-to-date in 2013. 

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Year-to-date paper and paperboard imports are essentially flat compared to prior year levels. Canada is far and away the larger source of imported paper and paperboard, representing 90 percent of total imports. Among the top 10, Sweden, South Korea, and Brazil have all posted drops of over 20 percent. France and India, who have swapped positions 10 and 11 between 2012 and 2013, have both posted gains of at least 40 percent year-to-date.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.