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Total
housing starts rose noticeably
in April, to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.072 million
units. That was 125,000 more units (26.4 percent) than March’s 947,000, and
just 3.0 percent below November’s peak of 1.101 million units. The multi-family
component contributed virtually all of the increase (120,000 units or 39.6
percent); the single-family component edged up by 5,000 units (0.8 percent).
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The
year-over-year percentage change in total starts popped back into positive
territory in April, rising to 24.4 percent. Single-family starts were 8.7
percent above year-earlier levels; the more volatile multi-family component jumped
65.7 percent.
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Completions
edged lower (-34,000 units or 3.9 percent) in April, to 847,000 units SAAR. The
decrease occurred in both the single-family (-15,000 units) and multi-family
(-19,000 units) components. Total completions were 18.9 percent above
year-earlier levels.
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Total
permits advanced by 80,000 units (8.0 percent) SAAR, to 1.080 million in April --
the highest level since June 2008. The increase occurred almost entirely in the
multi-family component (78,000 units or 19.5 percent); single-family permits were
nearly flat (+2,000 units or 0.3 percent). Total permits were 3.8 percent higher
than year-earlier levels. The multi-family component was 14.4 percent higher
than April 2013 but the single-family component was 3.2 percent lower.
The
rate of growth in total permits extended the slowing trend seen since late 2012
despite April’s positive monthly and annual percentage changes. Builder
confidence seemed to better reflect trends in the market for single-family
homes. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing
Market Index (HMI) fell one point in May, to 45, from a downwardly revised
April reading of 46. “After four months in which the HMI has shown little signs
of fluctuation, it is clear that builder sentiment is becoming more in line
with the market reality of a continuing but modest recovery,” said NAHB Chair
Kevin Kelly.
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The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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