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Tuesday, June 17, 2014

May 2014 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Total housing starts rose retreated in May, to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.001 million units. That was 70,000 fewer units (-6.5 percent) than April’s 1.071 million, and 9.4 percent below November’s peak of 1.105 million units. The decrease in starts was about evenly split -- single-family: -39,000 units (5.9 percent); multi-family: -31,000 units (7.6 percent).
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The year-over-year percentage change in total starts also slowed in May, falling to 8.0 percent. Single-family starts were 3.1 percent above year-earlier levels; the more volatile multi-family component shrank to +17.7 percent. 
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Completions edged higher (+57,000 units or 6.8 percent) in May, to 897,000 units SAAR. The multi-family component dominated the increase (+44,000 units or 18.7 percent); single-family completions: +13,000 units or 2.1 percent. Total completions were 25.6 percent above year-earlier levels. 
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Total permits retreated by 68,000 units (-6.4 percent) SAAR, to 991,000 in May. The decrease occurred entirely in the multi-family component (-90,000 units or 19.5 percent), more than offsetting the 62,000-unit gain in April. Single-family permits rose by 22,000 units (3.7 percent). Most troubling, total permits were 6.4 percent lower than year-earlier levels -- the single- and multi-family components were, respectively, 5.3 and 8.4 percent lower.
The rate of growth in total permits extended the slowing trend seen since late 2012. We find it interesting that builder behavior does not seem to reflect the improvement in confidence reported in the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI rose four points in June, to 49. “Consumers are still hesitant, and are waiting for clear signals of full-fledged economic recovery before making a home purchase,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Builders are reacting accordingly, and are moving cautiously in adding inventory.” 
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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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