2Q2015 Gross Domestic Product: First (Advance) Estimate

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated 2Q2015 growth in real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate of 2.32%, up 1.68 percentage points from 1Q2015’s revised +0.64% (2.49 percentage points higher than the -0.17% reported for 1Q in July). All groupings of GDP components contributed to 2Q growth: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private domestic investment (PDI), net exports (NetX), and government consumption expenditures (GCE). 

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The revision to 1Q's “final” estimate was accompanied by revisions to all quarters back through 2012. On average the revisions trimmed 0.22 percentage point from previously reported growth rates. However, several quarters were more materially revised -- with 3Q2012 slashed by nearly 2.0% and 1.5% from 3Q2013. Output for 1Q2014, on the other hand, was upgraded to -0.9% instead of -2.1%. The prior figure represented the worst contraction on record outside of a recession; now the new number is not even the worst quarterly contraction of the expansion (that “honor” falls to 1Q2011’s -1.5%). Overall, though, “the economic expansion -- already the worst on record since World War II -- is weaker than previously thought,” The Wall Street Journal observed.

In 2Q, nearly all major categories of economic activity had positive contributions to the headline number -- consumer goods: +1.04%; consumer services: +0.95%; exports: +0.67%; imports: -0.54%; fixed investment: +0.14% (the weakest since 2Q2012); governmental spending: +0.14%; inventories: -0.08%. Real final sales of domestic product (the BEA’s “bottom-line” metric for the economy’s health, and which excludes inventories) was estimated at a +2.40% growth rate.

Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $37,846, or $364 per year less than 1Q’s $38,210 -- which itself was revised downward by $437 (over 1%). Meanwhile, the household savings rate plunged to 4.8% -- down 0.7% from 1Q’s 5.5%; this implies consumers dipped into savings to maintain their current level of activity.

For this report the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 2.04%. Concurrent inflation, recorded by Bureau of Labor Statistics in its CPI-U index, was 3.52%. Underestimating inflation results in an overstatement of actual growth rates; if the BEA's nominal data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline number would show a more modest +0.89% growth rate.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2015 Residential Sales, Inventory and Prices

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Sales of new single-family homes declined in June (-35,000 units or 6.8%), to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of 482,000 (well below the 550,000 expected). Sales in June were 18.4% above year-earlier levels; year-to-date (YTD), sales were 20.3% above the same months in 2014.

Meanwhile, the median price of new homes sold edged up by $1,300 (+0.5%) to $281,800. The average price of homes sold, on the other hand, dropped by $7,200 (-2.1%). Because sales decreased more quickly than single-family starts, the three-month average ratio of starts to sales rose to 1.39 -- below the average (1.41) since January 1995. 

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As mentioned in our post on June’s housing permits, starts and completions, single-unit completions fell by 2,000 units (-0.3%). Because the drop in sales exceeded the drop in completions, new-home inventory expanded in both absolute terms (7,000 units) and months of inventory (+0.6 month). 

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Existing home sales rose again in June (+170,000 units or 3.2%) to 5.49 million units (SAAR); that result was slightly above expectations of 5.40 million, and the fastest pace in eight years. Because sales of existing homes increased while new homes fell, the share of total sales comprised of new homes dropped to 8.1%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in June climbed by $7,500 (+3.3%) to a record-high $236,400. Inventory of existing homes expanded in absolute terms (+20,000 units) but months-of-inventory shrank (-0.1 month). 

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Housing affordability suffered in May, as the median price of existing homes for sale jumped by $10,300 (+4.7%) to $230,300 (within $600 of the record set back in July 2006). Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indices posted a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change of +1.1% in April (+4.4% relative to a year earlier).

“As home prices continue rising, they are sending more upbeat signals than other housing market indicators,” said David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Nationally, single family home price increases have settled into a steady 4-5% annual pace following the double-digit bubbly pattern of 2013. Over the next two years or so, the rate of home price increases is more likely to slow than to accelerate. Prices are increasing about twice as fast as inflation or wages. Moreover, other housing measures are less robust. Housing starts are only at about 1.2 million units annually, and only about half of total starts are single family homes. Sales of new homes are low compared to sales of existing homes.

“First time homebuyers are the weak spot in the market. First time buyers provide the demand and liquidity that supports trading up by current home owners. Without a boost in first timers, there is less housing market activity, fewer existing homes being put on the market, and more worry about inventory. Research at the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank argues that one should not blame millennials for the absence of first time buyers. The age distribution of first time buyers has not changed much since 2000; if anything, the median age has dropped slightly. Other research at the New York Fed points to the size of mortgage down payments as a key factor. The difference between a 5% and 20% down payment, particularly for people who currently rent, has a huge impact on buyers’ willingness to buy a home. Mortgage rates are far less important to first time buyers than down payments.” 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2015 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% in June (+0.3% expected). The all-items increase was broad-based, with advances in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food. The energy index rose for the second straight month as the indexes for gasoline, electricity, and natural gas all increased. The food index posted its largest increase since September 2014, partly due to a sharp increase in the eggs index.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in June. In addition to the rise in the shelter index, the indexes for recreation, airline fares, personal care, tobacco, and new vehicles were among the indexes that increased in June. These advances more than offset declines in the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks, and apparel. 

The all items index showed a 12-month increase for the first time since December, rising 0.1% for the 12 months ending June. Despite rising in May and June, the energy index has still declined 15.0% over the past year. However, the indexes for food and for all items less food and energy have both risen 1.8% over the past 12 months.

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI) advanced 0.4% in June (+0.3% expected). The final demand index moved down 0.7% for the 12 months ended in June, the fifth straight YoY decrease.

Nearly two-thirds of June’s increase in the final demand index can be attributed to prices for final demand goods, which rose 0.7%. The index for final demand services advanced 0.3%.

Final demand goods:  The index for final demand goods moved up 0.7% in June after rising 1.3% a month earlier. Almost 60% of the broad-based advance in June is attributable to prices for final demand energy, which climbed 2.4%. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods increased 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

Product detail:  Thirty percent of the June advance in prices for final demand goods can be traced to the gasoline index, which rose 4.3%. Prices for chicken eggs, pharmaceutical preparations, residential electric power, residential natural gas, and cigarettes also moved higher. In contrast, the index for fresh and dry vegetables fell 6.0%. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas and electronic computers also decreased. (See table 4.)

Final demand services:  The index for final demand services moved up 0.3% in June following no change in May. Over half of the broad-based advance can be traced to a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing. Margins for final demand trade services rose 0.2%, and the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services advanced 0.6%. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

Product detail:  Thirty percent of the June increase in the index for final demand services can be attributed to prices for loan services (partial), which climbed 2.4%. The indexes for machinery and equipment wholesaling, fuels and lubricants retailing, truck transportation of freight, deposit services (partial), and portfolio management also moved higher. Conversely, margins for food and alcohol wholesaling declined 3.7%. The indexes for traveler accommodation services and passenger car rental also declined. 

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The price indexes we track were mixed on both month-over-month and year-over-year bases in May. Only Wood Fiber increased year-over-year. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2015 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Total housing starts jumped higher in June, to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.174 million units (1.125 million expected) -- the fastest rate since November 2007 (ignoring April 2015, which was revised to 1.190 million). June's level was 105,000 units higher (+9.8%) than May’s 1.069 million units. The increase in total starts was split as follows -- single-family: -6,000 units (-0.9%); multi-family: +111,000 units (29.4%). Incidentally, the number of multi-family starts is the greatest since April 1988. 

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Total starts were 26.5% above their year-earlier level (single-family: +14.0%; multi-family: +55.3%). Not-seasonally adjusted year-to-date (YTD) comparisons to 2014 rose across all components relative to May’s results. It is too early to tell whether the YoY percentage change in total starts has broken off the downward trend present since 2013. 

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Completions fell by 70,000 units (-6.7%) in June, to 972,000 units SAAR. The decrease was greatest in the multi-family component (-68,000 units or 17.3%); single-family edged down by 2,000 units (-0.3%). Despite the monthly declines, YoY and YTD completions relative to 2014 were higher on a percentage basis in June than in May. 

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Total permits gained for a third month in June (+93,000 units or 7.4%), to 1.343 million SAAR (1.178 million expected). The multi-family component dominated again in June: +87,000 units (15.3%); single-family: +6,000 units (0.9%). At a SAAR of 656,000 units, multi-family permits were nearly double those of a year earlier and 13.9% higher than the previous record set back in June 2008. YTD total permits were 14.3% above the same months in 2014, driven by the multi-family component (+27.2%).

The latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) ticked up to 60 (+1 point) in July -- the highest level since November 2005. An index value above 50 means more builders feel the market is good than feel it is poor. “The fact that builder confidence has returned to levels not seen since 2005 shows that housing continues to improve at a steady pace,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods. “As we head into the second half of 2015, we should expect a continued recovery of the housing market.”

“This month’s reading is in line with recent data showing stronger sales in both the new and existing home markets as well as continued job growth,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, builders still face a number of challenges, including shortages of lots and labor.” 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2015 Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Capacity

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Total industrial production (IP) increased 0.3% in June (+0.2% expected) but fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% during 2Q2015. In June, manufacturing output was unchanged: The output of motor vehicles and parts fell 3.7%, but production elsewhere in manufacturing rose 0.3%. The indexes for mining and utilities advanced 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively. At 105.7% of its 2007 average, total IP in June was 1.5% above its year-earlier level -- the weakest rate of growth since February 2010. Wood Products output fell by 1.7% (-1.0% YoY) but Paper rose 0.3% (+0.1% YoY). 

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Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.2% (-1.1% YoY) in June to 78.4%, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average. Wood Products CU declined 2.0% (-5.5% YoY) to 67.2%; Paper rose by 0.4% (+2.3% YoY) to 84.4%. 

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Capacity at the all-industries and manufacturing levels moved higher -- all-industries: +0.1% (+2.6% YoY) to 134.8% of 2007 output; Manufacturing: +0.1% (+2.1% YoY) to 132.9%. Wood Products extended the upward trend that has been ongoing since July 2013 when increasing by 0.3% (+4.7% YoY) to 119.1%. Paper once again contracted by 0.1% (-2.1% YoY) to 98.3% -- another new low.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

July 2015 Macro Pulse -- Slow Leak

Most of us have received a foil-lined helium balloon to mark an occasion such as a birthday or anniversary, or as an encouragement when ill. Although the balloon starts out full and buoyant, it gradually sinks as the seal inevitably fails. The leaky balloon seems a fitting analogy for the U.S. economy, which also appears to have developed a slow leak and is gradually losing altitude. We present the following as illustrations:

Click here to read the rest of the July 2015 Macro Pulse recap.

The Macro Pulse blog is a commentary about recent economic developments affecting the forest products industry. The monthly Macro Pulse newsletter summarizes the previous 30 days of commentary available on this website.

May 2015 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports increased by 1 MMBF (0.7%) in May while imports fell by 12 MMBF (-1.1%). Exports were 11 MMBF (7.0%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 72 MMBF (6.2%) lower. The net export deficit was 61 MMBF (6.0%) smaller. 

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Asia (especially China, Japan and Taiwan) was once again the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in May (38.4%). The rest of North America (i.e., Canada and Mexico) was a close second (36.0%). Canada was the largest single-country destination (20.1%). Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were down over 44% relative to the same months in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (95.2%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 15.5% compared to a year earlier, while imports were up 7.3%. 

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts rose slightly in relation to the other districts during May: 41.0% of the U.S. total; Seattle retained the title of most-active district, with 28.3% of the May total. At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 68.8% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 27.0%) coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 28.3% of all softwood lumber exports in May, followed by Douglas-fir with 16.5%. Southern pine exports were up 3.6% YTD relative to 2014, while Douglas-fir exports were down 35.5%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

May 2015 International Trade (General)

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The goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in May, up $1.2 billion from $40.7 billion in April. Exports were $188.6 billion, $1.5 billion less than in April. Imports were $230.5 billion (-$0.3 billion). The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.2 billion to $61.5 billion, and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $19.6 billion.

The May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.2), Brazil ($0.9), OPEC ($0.3), and Canada ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.6), European Union ($13.4), Germany ($6.4), Japan ($6.4), Mexico ($4.1), Italy $2.5), South Korea ($2.4), India ($2.0), France ($1.5), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and United Kingdom ($0.1).

* The deficit with China increased $3.1 billion to $30.6 billion. Exports decreased $0.7 billion to $9.6 billion and imports increased $2.4 billion to $40.2 billion.

* The deficit with the European Union increased $1.4 billion to $13.4 billion. Exports increased $1.0 billion to $22.6 billion and imports increased $0.4 billion to $36.0 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $1.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $26.5 billion or 2.7 percent. Imports decreased $25.4 billion or 2.2 percent.

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On a global scale, data compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis showed that world trade volume increased by 0.3% in April (+1.5% year-over-year) while prices fell by 0.6% (-15.5% YoY).

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2015 ISM and Markit Reports

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The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) monthly opinion survey showed that growth of economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector quickened in June. The PMI registered 53.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage point over the May reading of 52.8%. (50% is the breakpoint between contraction and expansion.) ISM’s manufacturing survey represents under 10% of U.S. employment and about 20% of the overall economy. The most apparent changes included increases in employment and inventories, decreased order backlogs, and moderation in the growth of imports. 

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Wood Products expanded in June as increased new orders apparently overshadowed the contraction in backlogged and export orders. Paper Products was mixed, but managed to expand as well.

The pace of growth in the non-manufacturing sector -- which accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment -- quickened marginally in June. The NMI registered 56.0%, 0.3 percentage point higher than the May reading of 55.7%. The sub-indexes that provide some forward-looking context were mixed. 

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Two of the three service industries we track reported expansion in June. The was little consistency among the sub-indexes.

Relevant commodities up in price included fuel (both diesel and gasoline) and paper. Natural gas was cheaper. No relevant commodities were in short supply.

ISM’s and Markit’s surveys were consistent insofar as all reported expansion across manufacturing and services; Markit, however, reported slower growth instead of ISM’s faster growth.

Comments from Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief economist, are presented below:

Manufacturing -- “Purchasing managers are reporting the slowest rate of manufacturing expansion for over a year and a half, suggesting that the economy is slowing again.

“The slowdown is largely linked to a third consecutive monthly fall in exports, in turn attributed by many companies to the strong dollar undermining international competitiveness.

“Investment spending also appears to be waning, with recent months seeing the slowest growth of new orders for business equipment and machinery for two years. The investment slowdown suggests companies are becoming more risk averse and cautious in their spending. The current impressive rate of factory job creation could soon likewise wane unless the outlook improves.

“The good news is that the export and investment drags are being offset by an ongoing surge in consumer spending, which is in turn most likely linked to falling prices in recent months. An upturn in growth of new orders for consumer goods helped drive an increase in overall manufacturing orders books during the month, providing a ray of hope that output growth will stabilize at its current modest pace.

“Policymakers will be concerned about the unbalanced nature of growth, and in particular the loss of export and investment drivers, and will want to see growth pick up again in coming months before committing to higher interest rates.”

Services -- “The June PMI data round off a solid second quarter for the US economy, with GDP likely to have risen at an annualized 3% rate. However, it’s important to look at what’s happened over the course of the quarter, rather than looking at the quarter as a whole. Although still signaling moderate growth in June, the manufacturing and service sector surveys indicate that the rate of economic expansion has slowed markedly since the start of the quarter, when business was boosted by a rebound from weather related weakness.

“The loss of growth momentum seen in the surveys means GDP growth could slacken off again in the third quarter and hiring could likewise ease off.

“Fed talk will most likely continue to prepare the ground for rate hikes later this year, but policymakers will want to see firmer evidence that the economy retains healthy growth momentum before taking the plunge and hiking interest rates, especially given ongoing disappointing pay growth and benign inflation.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

May 2015 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and New & Unfilled Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments decreased 0.3 billion or 0.1% to $482.1 billion in May. Shipments of durable goods decreased $0.7 billion or 0.3% to $239.2 billion, led by transportation equipment. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $242.9 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Wood shipments fell by 0.9% and Paper 0.2%. 

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Inventories increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $649.7 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.35, unchanged from April.

Inventories of durable goods decreased $0.9 billion or 0.2% to $400.5 billion, led by transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories increased $1.0 billion or 0.4% to $249.2 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Inventories of Wood contracted by 0.5% while Paper was unchanged. 

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New orders decreased $4.5 billion or 1.0% to $470.5 billion (-0.3% expected). Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%. Durable goods orders decreased $5.0 billion or 2.2% to $227.6 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for nondurable goods increased $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $242.9 billion.

Prior to July 2014, as can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new orders had been essentially flat since early 2012, recouping roughly 75% of the losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. With July’s transportation-led spike now in the rearview mirror, new orders are back to around 57% of their December 2007 high. 

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Unfilled durable-goods orders decreased $6.4 billion or 0.5% to $1,194.6 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.98, unchanged from April. Real unfilled orders, which had been a good litmus test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms, unfilled orders in June 2014 were back to just 79% of their December 2008 peak. Real unfilled orders jumped to 102% of the prior peak in July, thanks to the largest-ever batch of aircraft orders, hence, this metric is likely to remain elevated for several years.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2015 Employment Report

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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) establishment survey, non-farm payroll employment increased by 223,000 jobs in June -- below expectations of 230,000. Moreover, combined April and May employment gains were trimmed by 60,000 (April: -34,000; May: -26,000). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (based upon the BLS’s household survey) dropped to 5.3% as 432,000 persons left the workforce and thus are no longer considered unemployed. 

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Observations from the employment report include:

* The disparity in jobs gains between the establishment (+223,000) and household (-56,000) surveys was quite noticeable.

* The downturn in oil-sector (part of the Mining & Logging category) employment moderated.

* Over 60% (136,000) of job growth occurred in the sectors typically associated with the lowest-paid jobs: Professional & Business Services: +64,000; Education & Health Services: +50,000; and Leisure & Hospitality: +22,000. This is a persistent issue, as we have repeatedly highlighted: There are 1.41 million fewer manufacturing jobs today than at the start of the Great Recession in December 2007. Nearly 1.39 million Food Services & Drinking Places (i.e., wait staff and bartender) jobs have been added during that time period, however. 

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* The employment-population ratio ticked down (-0.1%) to 59.3% -- the level it has been at during five of the last six months; also, the number of employment-age persons not in the labor force surged (+640,000) to a new record above 93.6 million. 

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* The labor force participation rate dropped 0.3 percentage point, to 62.6%. Average hourly earnings of all private employees were unchanged at $24.95, resulting in a 2.0% year-over-year increase. For all production and nonsupervisory employees (pictured above), hourly wages rose $0.02 (+1.9% YoY). With the CPI running at an official rate of 0.0% (YoY), wages are technically rising in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 34.5 hours in June. 

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* Finally, full-time jobs decreased (-349,000) while part-time jobs increased (+161,000). Full-time jobs have been trending higher since December 2009, but are still 822,000 short of the pre-recession high (even while the non-institutional civilian population has risen by an estimated 17.7 million). Part-time jobs, by contrast, have been stuck in a channel between roughly 27 and 28 million.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

June 2015 Monthly Average Crude Oil Price

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The monthly average U.S.-dollar price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose at a more moderate pace in June (+$0.57), to $59.84 per barrel. The price increase coincided with a slightly stronger U.S. dollar, the lagged impacts of a 201,000 barrel-per-day (BPD) decrease in the amount of oil supplied/demanded in April (to 19.0 million BPD), and generally stable oil stocks. The monthly average price spread between Brent crude (the predominant grade used in Europe) and WTI narrowed by $3.12 in June, to $1.69 per barrel. 

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With futures prices in “contango” (i.e., near-term contracts are priced lower than later-term contracts), we do not expect significant additional fallout in spot oil prices. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.