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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Thursday, September 3, 2015

August 2015 ISM and Markit Reports

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The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) monthly opinion survey showed that growth of economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector decelerated again in August, to its slowest rate since May 2013. The PMI registered 51.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points below the July reading of 52.7%. (50% is the breakpoint between contraction and expansion.) ISM’s manufacturing survey represents under 10% of U.S. employment and about 20% of the overall economy. Index values were lower in August except for slow supplier deliveries, customer inventories and order backlogs. 
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Wood Products was unchanged in August. "Business is guarded but steady. Margins are tight. Markets are very competitive. China is lackluster," wrote one Wood Products respondent. Paper Products expanded as usual, with broad-based support among the sub-indexes. "We are oversold," observed one Paper Products respondent, however.
The pace of growth in the non-manufacturing sector -- which accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment -- eased slightly off its July high. The NMI registered 59.0%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the July reading of 60.3%. Here, too, the sub-indexes were mostly lower. 
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Two of the three service industries we track (Real Estate and Construction) reported expansion in August. Ag & Forestry was unchanged.
No relevant commodity was consistently up in price. Some respondents reported paying more for diesel and gasoline, others less. Only crude oil was consistently lower in price. No relevant commodity was in short supply.
ISM’s and Markit’s manufacturing surveys were consistent insofar as both reported a loss of momentum. The services/non-manufacturing reports diverged somewhat, however, as ISM’s NMI decreased while Markit’s Services PMI increased.
Comments on Markit’s reports are presented below:
Manufacturing -- “August’s survey highlights that the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to struggle under the weight of the strong dollar and heightened global economic uncertainty,” said Tim Moore, senior economist, “but resilient domestic spending and subdued cost pressures are keeping the recovery on track. Reflecting this, new orders from abroad have now fallen in four of the past five months, which represents the weakest phase of manufacturing export performance since late-2012.
“In response to softer growth momentum, manufacturers took a more cautious approach to staff hiring and inventories in August. Stocks of finished goods were depleted for the first time in 2015 so far, and job creation was the weakest for over a year, as some firms sought to realign production schedules with expectations of sluggish growth trends ahead.”
Services -- “The US economy is enjoying a solid third quarter,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist, “with robust survey readings so far pointing to 2.5% annualized GDP growth. Employment growth is also holding up well, with PMI surveys signaling another month of non-farm payroll growth in excess of 200,000 in August.
“Although the manufacturing sector has been struggling in the face of weak overseas demand and the stronger dollar, the more domestically-focused service sector clearly continues to fare well amid these headwinds and, due its size, is keeping the economy ticking along at a reasonable, albeit unspectacular, rate. It’s also reassuring to see business expectations about the year ahead rebound from the brief lull seen in July.
“However, while the economy has maintained robust growth momentum, inflationary pressures have abated, which will help the argument that interest rate hikes can be delayed. In fact, with the survey data showing average selling prices for goods and services to have fallen in August for the first time since 2010 and global economic concerns intensifying, the balance could easily tip towards the need for more stimulus.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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