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Macro Pulse highlights recent activity and events expected to affect the U.S. economy over the next 24 months. While the review is of the entire U.S. economy its particular focus is on developments affecting the Forest Products industry. Everyone with a stake in any level of the sector can benefit from
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Thursday, January 7, 2016

November 2015 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports fell by 7 MMBF (5.6%) in November while imports increased by 33 MMBF (+2.6%). Exports were 6 MMBF (5.1%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 337 MMBF (33.8%) higher. The year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 331 MMBF (37.8%) larger. 
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North America was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in November (41.8%, of which Canada: 21.3%; Mexico: 20.5%). Asia (especially China: 18.9%) placed second with 38.8%. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were down 31.0% relative to the same months in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (96.4%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 11.5% compared to 2014, while imports were up 9.9%. 
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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts bounced back in relation to the other districts during November (to 40.5% of the U.S. total, from 33.3% in October); Seattle reestablished its dominance as the most active export district (22.2% of the U.S. total), as Mobile, AL dropped by nearly half (to 10.8%, from 19.1%). At the same time, Great Lakes customs districts handled 70.5% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN with 28.9%) coming into the United States. 
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Southern yellow pine comprised 30.7% of all softwood lumber exports in November, followed by Douglas-fir with 20.2% (up from 14.9%). Southern pine exports were up 8.7% YTD relative to 2014, while Douglas-fir exports were down 26.6%.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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