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Softwood
lumber exports fell by 7 MMBF (5.6%) in November while imports increased by 33 MMBF
(+2.6%). Exports were 6 MMBF (5.1%) above
year-earlier levels; imports were 337 MMBF (33.8%) higher. The year-over-year
(YoY) net export deficit was 331 MMBF (37.8%) larger.
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North
America was the primary destination for U.S. softwood lumber exports in November
(41.8%, of which Canada: 21.3%; Mexico: 20.5%). Asia (especially China: 18.9%) placed
second with 38.8%. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were down 31.0% relative
to the same months in 2014. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of nearly all (96.4%)
softwood lumber imports into the United States. Overall, YTD exports were down 11.5%
compared to 2014, while imports were up 9.9%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through West Coast customs districts bounced
back in relation to the other districts during November (to 40.5% of the U.S.
total, from 33.3% in October); Seattle reestablished its dominance as the most
active export district (22.2% of the U.S. total), as Mobile, AL dropped by
nearly half (to 10.8%, from 19.1%). At the same time, Great Lakes customs
districts handled 70.5% of the softwood lumber imports (especially Duluth, MN
with 28.9%) coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 30.7% of all softwood lumber exports in November,
followed by Douglas-fir with 20.2% (up from 14.9%). Southern pine exports were up
8.7% YTD relative to 2014, while Douglas-fir exports were down 26.6%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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