March 2017 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,215,000 units (1.262 million expected). This is 6.8% (±12.5%)* below the revised February estimate of 1,303,000 (originally 1.288 million units), and 9.2% (±9.1%) above the March 2016 SAAR of 1,113,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was +8.6%.

Single-family housing starts in March were at a SAAR of 821,000; this is 6.2% (±10.0%)* below the revised February figure of 875,000. The March SAAR for multi-family starts was 394,000 units.

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 

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Total housing completions in March were at a SAAR of 1,205,000 units. This is 3.2% (±13.5%)* above the revised February estimate of 1,168,000 and 13.4% (±16.2%)* above the March 2016 SAAR of 1,063,000; the NSA comparison: +17.9% YoY.

Single-family housing completions were at a SAAR of 819,000; this is 7.9% (±12.9%)* above the revised February rate of 759,000. Multi-family completions: 386,000 (-5.6% MoM). 

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Total building permits were at a SAAR of 1,260,000 units (1.250 million expected). This is 3.6% (±2.8%) above the revised February rate of 1,216,000 units (originally 1.213 million) and 17.0% (±1.2%) above the March 2016 SAAR of 1,077,000; the NSA comparison: +14.5% YoY.

Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 823,000; this is 1.1% (±1.9%)* below the revised February figure of 832,000. Multi-family: 437,000 (+13.8% MoM). 

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Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained solid in April, falling three points to a level of 68 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index after an unusually high March reading.

“Even with this month’s modest drop, builder confidence is on very firm ground, and builders are reporting strong interest among potential home buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald.

“The fact that the HMI measure of current sales conditions has been over 70 for five consecutive months shows that there is continued demand for new construction,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, builders are facing several challenges, such as hefty regulatory costs and ongoing increases in building material prices."

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.