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Softwood
lumber exports decreased (19 MMBF or +12.3%) in July, while imports slipped (3 MMBF
or -0.3%). Exports were 6 MMBF (+4.3%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 214
MMBF (-15.4%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit
was 219 MMBF (-17.4%) lower. Moreover, the average net export deficit for the
12 months ending July 2017 was 6.3% smaller than the average of the same months
a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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Asia
(especially China: 22.3%) and North America (of which Canada: 17.4%; Mexico: 19.7%)
were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in July. Year-to-date
(YTD) exports to China were +12.3% relative to the same months in 2016. Meanwhile,
Canada was the source of most (91%) of softwood lumber imports into the United
States. Interestingly, imports from Canada are 15.1% lower YTD than the same
months in 2016. Overall, YTD exports were up 2.0% compared to 2016, while imports
were down 12.3%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through Eastern customs region represented the
largest proportion in July (36.1% of the U.S. total), followed by the West Coast
(31.0%) and the Gulf (26.4%) regions. However, Seattle maintained a small lead
(19.0% of the U.S. total) over Mobile (15.8%) as the single most-active
district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 64.2% of
softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (27.9%) -- coming
into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 36.0% of all softwood lumber exports in July, followed by
Douglas-fir (13.6%) and treated lumber (13.1%). Southern pine exports were up 5.9%
YTD relative to 2016, while treated: +31.6%; Doug-fir: +5.6%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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