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Softwood
lumber exports increased (24 MMBF or +17.8%) in August, while imports slipped (16
MMBF or -1.4%). Exports were 23 MMBF (+17.1%) above year-earlier levels;
imports were 213 MMBF (-15.5%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net
export deficit was 237 MMBF (-19.1%) lower. Moreover, the average net export
deficit for the 12 months ending August 2017 was 8.9% smaller than the average
of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the
graph above).
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Asia
(especially China: 23.3%) and North America (of which Canada: 17.1%; Mexico: 21.6%)
were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports in August. Year-to-date
(YTD) exports to China were +17.2% relative to the same months in 2016. Meanwhile,
Canada was the source of most (90.8%) of softwood lumber imports into the
United States. Interestingly, imports from Canada are 15.7% lower
YTD than the same months in 2016. Overall, YTD exports were up 4.0% compared to
2016, while imports were down 12.7%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through Eastern customs region represented the
largest proportion in August (38.6% of the U.S. total), followed by the West
Coast (32.4%) and the Gulf (22.6%) regions. However, Seattle maintained a small
lead (17.7% of the U.S. total) over Mobile (12.5%) as the single most-active
district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 64.0% of
softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (27.7%) -- coming
into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 30.0% of all softwood lumber exports in August, followed
by treated lumber (15.1%) and Douglas-fir (13.9%). Southern pine exports were up
8.3% YTD relative to 2016, while treated: +31.6%; Doug-fir: +6.9%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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