January 2019 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports turned up (29 MMBF or +31.30%) to start the year in January; meanwhile, imports fell (67 MMBF or -6.0%). Exports were 11 MMBF (-8.5%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 99 MMBF (-8.6%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 87 MMBF (-8.6%) smaller. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending January 2019 was 2.9% smaller than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above). 

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North America (44.7%; of which Canada: 19.6%; Mexico: 25.0%) and Asia (28.0%; especially China: 9.5%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports; the Caribbean ranked third with a 20.5% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were -63.3% relative to the same months in 2018. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (87.2%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 10.0% lower YTD than the same months in 2018. Overall, YTD exports were down 8.5% compared to 2018; imports: -8.6%. 

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the Gulf customs region represented the largest proportion (33.3% of the U.S. total), followed by the West Coast (30.4%) and Eastern (29.5%) regions. Seattle (18.8% of the U.S. total) maintained the lead over Mobile (17.4%) as the single most-active district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 59.0% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (21.7%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 25.1% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (11.6%) and treated lumber (12.4%). Southern pine exports were down 32.3% YTD relative to 2018, while treated: -20.2%; Doug-fir: -11.8%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

February 2019 Residential Sales, Inventory and Prices

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Sales of new single-family houses in February 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 667,000 units (620,000 expected). This is 4.9% (±14.4%)* above the revised January rate of 636,000 (originally 607,000) and 0.6% (±13.1%)* above the February 2018 SAAR of 663,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted year-over-year comparison (shown in the table above) was +3.7%. For longer-term perspectives, not-seasonally adjusted sales were 52.0% below the “housing bubble” peak but 7.1% above the long-term, pre-2000 average.

The median sales price of new houses sold in February was $315,300 (+$11,400 or 3.8% MoM); meanwhile, the average sales price jumped to $379,600 (+$21,600 or 6.0%). Starter homes (defined here as those priced below $200,000) comprised 12.5% of the total sold, up from the year-earlier 11.1%; prior to the Great Recession starter homes represented as much as 61% of total new-home sales. Homes priced below $150,000 made up 3.6% of those sold in February, little changed from 3.7% a year earlier.

* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. 

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As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in February, single-unit completions fell by 91,000 units (-10.0%). Because completions fell while sales rose (+31,000 units; 4.9%), inventory for sale contracted in both absolute (-2,000 units) and months-of-inventory (-0.4 month) terms. 

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Existing home sales advanced in February (+580,000 units), jumping to a SAAR of 5.51 million units (5.080 million expected). Inventory of existing homes for sale expanded in absolute terms (+40,000 units) but contracted in months-of-inventory terms (-0.4 month). The median price of previously owned homes sold in December fell to $249,500 (-$7,200 or 2.8% MoM). Because the rise in resales was proportionally larger than that of new-home sales, the share of total sales comprised of new homes declined to 10.8%. 

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Housing affordability jumped as the median price of existing homes for sale in January fell by $7,000 (-2.7%; +3.1 YoY), to $249,400. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic Home Price indices dropped at a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change of -0.2% (+4.3% YoY).

“Home price gains continue to shrink,” said David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In the year to January, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index rose 4.3%, two percentage points slower than its pace in January 2018. The last time it advanced this slowly was April 2015. In 16 of the 20 cities tracked, price gains were smaller in January 2019 than in January 2018. Only Phoenix saw any appreciable acceleration. Some cities where prices surged in 2017-2018 now face much smaller increases: in Seattle, annual price gains dropped from 12.8% to 4.1% from January 2018 to January 2019. San Francisco saw annual price increases shrink from 10.2% to 1.8% over the same time period.

“Mortgage rates are as important as prices for many home buyers. Mortgage rates climbed from 3.95% in January 2018 to a peak of 4.95% in November 2018. Since then, rates have dropped to 4.28% as of mid-March. Sales of existing single-family homes slid gently downward from 4Q2017 until January of this year before jumping higher in February 2019. Home sales annual rate dropped from 5 million units in February 2018 to 4.36 million units in January 2019 before popping to 4.94 in February. It remains to be seen if recent low mortgage rates and smaller price gains can sustain improved home sales.” 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

4Q2018 Gross Domestic Product: Third Estimate

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In its third estimate of 4Q2018 gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) pared the growth rate of the U.S. economy to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of +2.17% (+2.2% expected), down 0.42 percentage point (PP) from the “initial” estimate (“4Qv1”) -- comparable to a combination of the more typical “advance” and “second” estimates -- and -1.18PP from 3Q2018.

Two groupings of GDP components -- personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private domestic investment (PDI) -- contributed to 4Q growth, while net exports (NetX) and government consumption expenditures (GCE) detracted from it.

The downward revision in the headline number was driven by weaker estimates of growth in --

• Consumer goods: -0.26PP from 4Qv1; -0.36PP from 3Q,
• Fixed investment: -0.15PP from 4Qv1; but +0.33PP from 3Q, and
• Government spending: -0.14PP from 4Qv1; -0.51PP from 3Q. 

Most of the remaining revisions were statistical noise, except for a +0.11PP (+1.07PP from 3Q) revision to imports.

A modest reduction (-0.40PP from 4Qv1) in the contribution of private inventories reduced real 4Q final sales of domestic product (which exclude inventories). However, the final 4Q RFSDP estimate of +2.06% was 1.04PP above the 3Q2018 estimate. 

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This report has some “interesting twists,” according to Consumer Metric Institute’s Rick Davis:

-- The net headline number was revised lower to the very near the bottom of the "Goldilocks" zone. This report, in itself, can't justify a change in Federal Reserve monetary policy in any direction. But at the same time it is clearly signaling an economy where the growth cycle probably peaked several quarters ago.

-- That said, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals a second consecutive quarter of weakening growth in consumer spending. And the increase in the household savings rate explains to a large extent where any additional disposable income is actually going -- into savings in lieu of spending.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

February 2019 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in February at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,162,000 units. This is 8.7% (±10.3%)* below the revised January estimate of 1,273,000 (originally 1.230 million units) and 9.9% (±11.5%)* below the February 2018 SAAR of 1,290,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was -9.4%.

Single-family housing starts in February were at a SAAR of 805,000; this is 17.0% (±11.2%) below the revised January figure of 970,000 (-10.7% YoY). Multi-family starts: 357,000 units (+17.8% MoM; -6.2% YoY).

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 

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Completions in February were at a SAAR of 1,303,000. This is 4.5% (±17.8%)* above the revised January estimate of 1,247,000 (originally 1.244 million units) and 1.1% (±18.6%)* above the February 2018 SAAR of 1,289,000 units; the NSA comparison: +2.0% YoY.

Single-family housing completions in February were at a SAAR of 816,000; this is 10.0% (±11.0%)* below the revised January rate of 907,000 (-7.5% YoY). Multi-family completions: 487,000 units (+43.2% MoM; +23.4% YoY). 

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Total permits were at a SAAR of 1,296,000 units. This is 1.6% (±1.2%) below the revised January rate of 1,317,000 (originally 1.345 million units) and 2.0% (±1.7%) below the February 2018 SAAR of 1,323,000 units; the NSA comparison: -2.1% YoY.

Single-family permits were at a rate of 821,000; this is unchanged (±0.7%)* from the revised January figure of 821,000 (-7.2% YoY). Multi-family: 475,000 (-4.2% MoM; +8.7% YoY). 

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Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes held steady at 62 in March, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“Builders report the market is stabilizing following the slowdown at the end of 2018 and they anticipate a solid spring home buying season,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

“In a healthy sign for the housing market, more builders are saying that lower price points are selling well, and this was reflected in the government’s new home sales report released last week,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Increased inventory of affordably priced homes -- in markets where government policies support such construction -- will enable more entry-level buyers to enter the market.”

However, affordability still remains a key concern for builders. The skilled worker shortage, lack of buildable lots and stiff zoning restrictions in many major metro markets are among the challenges builders face as they strive to construct homes that can sell at affordable price points.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

January 2019 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and New & Unfilled Orders

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the value of manufactured-goods shipments in January decreased $1.8 billion or 0.4% to $503.1 billion. Durable goods shipments decreased $1.3 billion or 0.5% to $257.9 billion led by transportation equipment. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $245.2 billion, led by chemical products. Shipments of wood products fell by 0.2%; paper: +0.5%. 

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Inventories increased $3.6 billion or 0.5% to $685.7 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.36, up from 1.35 in December. Inventories of durable goods increased $1.9 billion or 0.5% to $417.2 billion, led by transportation equipment. Nondurable goods inventories increased $1.8 billion or 0.7% to $268.5 billion, led by petroleum and coal products. Inventories of wood products shrank by 0.4%; paper: +0.9%. 

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New orders increased $0.3 billion or 0.1% to $500.5 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased by 0.2% (+1.4% YoY). Durable goods orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.3% to $255.3 billion, led by transportation equipment. New orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business investment spending -- jumped 0.8% (+3.2% YoY). New orders for nondurable goods decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2% to $245.2 billion.

As can be seen in the graph above, real (inflation-adjusted) new orders were essentially flat between early 2012 and mid-2014, recouping on average less than 70% of the losses incurred since the beginning of the Great Recession. The recovery in real new orders is back to just 57% of the ground given up in the Great Recession. 

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Unfilled durable-goods orders increased $1.4 billion or 0.1% to $1,181.9 billion, led by transportation equipment. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.57, up from 6.55 in December. Real unfilled orders, which had been a good litmus test for sector growth, show a much different picture; in real terms, unfilled orders in June 2014 were back to 97% of their December 2008 peak. Real unfilled orders then jumped to 102% of the prior peak in July 2014, thanks to the largest-ever batch of aircraft orders. Since then, however, real unfilled orders have been going mostly sideways.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

February 2019 Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Capacity

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Total industrial production (IP) edged up 0.1% in February (+0.4% expected) after decreasing 0.4% in January (originally -0.6%). Manufacturing production fell 0.4% in February for its second consecutive monthly decline. The index for utilities rose 3.7%, while the index for mining moved up 0.3%. At 109.7% of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5% higher in February than it was a year earlier. 

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Industry Groups

Manufacturing output decreased 0.4% in February after falling 0.5% in January. In February, the index stood 1.0% above its year-earlier level (NAICS manufacturing: -0.4% MoM; +1.2%YoY). The output of durables edged down. Losses of 1½% or more were registered by nonmetallic mineral products, by machinery, and by furniture and related products, while gains of more than 1% were registered by computer and electronics products, by aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, and by miscellaneous manufacturing (wood products: +0.8%). Nondurable goods production fell 0.7%. Most major nondurable goods industries posted decreases; the only increases were recorded by paper products (+0.7%) and by food, beverage, and tobacco products. Production of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) increased 0.5% but remained well below its year-earlier level.

The output of utilities rose 3.7% in February; the output of electric utilities rebounded from decreases in the previous two months. Mining output moved up 0.3% for its 13th consecutive monthly increase, and the index was 12.5% above its level of a year earlier. 

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Capacity utilization (CU) for the industrial sector edged down less than 0.1 percentage point (PP) in February to 78.2%, a rate that is 1.6PP below its long-run (1972–2018) average.

Manufacturing CU declined 0.4PP in February to 75.4%, almost 3PP below its long-run average, with losses for durables and for nondurables (NAICS manufacturing: -0.5%, to 76.0%; wood products: +0.6%, to 75.4%; paper products: +0.7%, to 87.0%) but a gain for other manufacturing (publishing and logging). The utilization rate for mining decreased to 94.6% but remained well above its long-run average of 87.1%. The rate for utilities jumped to 78.6%, but it was still nearly 7PP below its long-run average. 

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Capacity at the all-industries level nudged up 0.2% (+2.2 % YoY) to 140.2% of 2012 output. Manufacturing (NAICS basis) rose fractionally (+0.1% MoM; +1.5% YoY) to 139.4%. Wood products: +0.2% (+3.4% YoY) to 164.6%; paper products: -0.1% (-1.0 % YoY) to 110.2%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

December 2018 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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Softwood lumber exports extended the downturn (33 MMBF or -26.0%) in December, along with imports (8 MMBF or -0.7%). Exports were 48 MMBF (-34.1%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 131 MMBF (-10.5%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 83 MMBF (-7.5%) smaller. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending December 2018 was 3.4% smaller than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above). 

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North America (42.3%; of which Canada: 22.0%; Mexico: 20.2%) and Asia (34.4%; especially China: 7.9% and Japan: 8.7%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports; the Caribbean ranked third with a 14.8% share. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were -20.8% relative to the same months in 2017. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (90.7%) of softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 4.7% lower YTD than the same months in 2017. Overall, YTD exports were down 0.9% compared to 2017; imports: -3.1%. 

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented the largest proportion (36.4% of the U.S. total), followed by the Eastern (31.3%) and Gulf (23.3%) regions. Moreover, Seattle (22.9% of the U.S. total) retook the lead over Mobile (12.6%) as the single most-active district. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 65.2% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (27.3%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 20.3% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (15.8%) and treated lumber (9.9%). Southern pine exports were down 4.3% YTD relative to 2017, while treated: -13.2%; Doug-fir: -9.4%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

January 2019 Residential Sales, Inventory and Prices

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Sales of new single-family houses in January 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 607,000 units (620,000 expected). This is 6.9% (±16.3%)* below the revised December rate of 652,000 units (originally 621,000) and 4.1% (±14.0%)* below the January 2018 SAAR of 633,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted year-over-year comparison (shown in the table above) was -6.3%. For longer-term perspectives, not-seasonally adjusted sales were 56.3% below the “housing bubble” peak and 13.9% below the long-term, pre-2000 average.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January was $317,200 (-$1,900 or 0.6% MoM); meanwhile, the average sales price edged down $900 (-0.2%) to $373,100. Starter homes (defined here as those priced below $200,000) comprised 8.9% of the total sold, down from the year-earlier 16.7%; prior to the Great Recession starter homes represented as much as 61% of total new-home sales. Homes priced below $150,000 made up 2.2% of those sold in January, down 4.2% YoY.

* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. 

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As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in January, single-unit completions jumped by 212,000 units (+30.2%). New inventory for sale contracted in absolute (-5,000 units) but expanded in months-of-sales (+0.3 month) terms as completions rose while sales fell (-45,000 units; 6.9%). 

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Existing home sales retreated in January (-60,000 units or 1.2%), to a SAAR of 4.94 million units (5.050 million expected). Inventory of existing homes for sale expanded in both absolute (+60,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+0.2 month) terms. Because the retreat in new-home sales was proportionally greater than that of resales, the share of total sales comprised of new homes fell to 10.9%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in January fell to $247,500 (-$7,200 or 2.8% MoM). 

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Housing affordability improved marginally as the median price of existing homes for sale in December fell by $3,500 (-1.3%; +3.4 YoY), to $256,400. Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic Home Price indices edged down at a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change of -0.1% (+4.7% YoY).

“The annual rate of price increases continues to fall,” said David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Even at the reduced pace of 4.7% per year, home prices continue to outpace wage gains of 3.5% to 4% and inflation of about 2%. A decline in interest rates in the fourth quarter was not enough to offset the impact of rising prices on home sales. The monthly number of existing single family homes sold dropped throughout 2018, reaching an annual rate of 4.45 million in December. The 2018 full year sales pace was 4.74 million.

“Regional patterns continue to shift. Seattle and Portland, OR experienced the fastest price increases of any city from late 2016 to the spring of 2018; in December, they ranked 11th and 16th. Currently, the cities with the fastest price increases are Las Vegas and Phoenix. These are a reminder of how prices rose and collapsed in the financial crisis 12 years ago. Despite their recent gains, Las Vegas and Phoenix are the furthest below their 2006 peaks of any city followed in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

January 2019 Construction Spending

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Construction spending during January 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $1,279.6 billion, 1.3% (±0.8%) above the revised December estimate of $1,263.1 billion (originally $1,292.7 billion); consensus expectations were for +0.3%. The January figure is 0.3% (±1.2%)* above the January 2018 SAAR of $1,276.3 billion; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table below) was -0.5%.

* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The U.S. Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. 

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Private Construction

Spending on private construction was at a SAAR of $966.0 billion, 0.2% (±0.7%)* above the revised December estimate of $964.2 billion.
- Residential: $511.4 billion, 0.3% (±1.3%)* below the revised December estimate of $512.9 billion.
- Nonresidential: $454.7 billion, 0.8% (±0.7%) above the revised December estimate of $451.2 billion.

Public Construction

Public construction spending was $313.6 billion, 4.9% (±1.6%) above the revised December estimate of $299.0 billion.
- Educational: $77.8 billion, 2.2% (±2.0%) above the revised December estimate of $76.1 billion.
- Highway: $99.9 billion, 11.8% (±5.1%) above the revised December estimate of $89.3 billion.

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Click here for a discussion of January’s new residential permits, starts and completions. Click here for a discussion of new and existing home sales, inventories and prices. 

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

February 2019 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% in February (+0.2% expected). The indexes for shelter and food increased, and the gasoline index rose after recent declines to result in the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.4%, its largest monthly increase since May 2014, as both the food at home and food away from home indexes increased. The gasoline index rose 1.5% in February, following three consecutive monthly declines, resulting in the energy index rising 0.4% despite declines in the electricity and natural gas indexes.  

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1% in February after rising 0.2% in January. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for personal care, apparel, and education all increased. The indexes for recreation, medical care, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles all declined in February.

The all items index increased 1.5% for the 12 months ending February, a smaller increase than the 1.6% rise for the 12 months ending January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1% over the last 12 months, a slightly smaller figure than the 2.2% increase for the period ending January. The food index rose 2.0% over the past year, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 2015. In contrast, the energy index declined 5.0% over the last 12 months.

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1% in February (+0.2% expected). Final demand prices fell 0.1% in both January and December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 1.9% for the 12 months ended in February.

In February, the increase in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.4% rise in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services inched up 0.1% in February following a 0.2% advance in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 2.3%.

Final Demand

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods increased 0.4% in February following three consecutive declines. Over 80% of the advance can be traced to prices for final demand energy, which rose 1.8%. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy edged up 0.1%. Conversely, prices for final demand foods fell 0.3%.

Product detail: Forty percent of the increase in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 3.3% rise in gasoline prices. The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, integrated microcircuits, residual fuels, and beef and veal also moved higher. In contrast, prices for fresh and dry vegetables declined 12.8%. The indexes for iron and steel scrap and for residential natural gas also decreased.

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services were unchanged in February following a 0.3% rise in January. In February, a 0.3% increase in the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing offset a decline of 0.4% in margins for final demand trade services and a 1.3% decrease in the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

Product detail: In February, prices for traveler accommodation services rose 5.3%. The indexes for machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; food retailing; portfolio management; and legal services also moved higher. Conversely, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing fell 10.5%. The indexes for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; airline passenger services; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; and nonresidential real estate services also declined. 

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The not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track either were unchanged or advanced on a MoM basis, and were mixed YoY. 

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.