March 2019 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,139,000 units (1.230 million expected). This is 0.3% (±14.6%)* below the revised February estimate of 1,142,000 (originally 1.162 million units) and 14.2% (±8.8%) below the March 2018 SAAR of 1,327,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was -13.0%.

Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 785,000; this is 0.4% (±15.2%)* below the revised February figure of 788,000 (-9.7% YoY). Multi-family starts: 354,000 units (0.0% MoM; -19.9% YoY).

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category. 

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Completions in March were at a SAAR of 1,313,000. This is 1.9% (±19.5%)* below the revised February estimate of 1,338,000 (originally 1.303 million units), but 6.8% (±15.8%)* above the March 2018 SAAR of 1,229,000 units; the NSA comparison: +8.6% YoY.

Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 938,000; this is 11.9% (±14.2%)* above the revised February rate of 838,000 (+10.6% YoY). Multi-family completions: 375,000 units (-25.0% MoM; +4.0% YoY). 

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Total permits were at a SAAR of 1,269,000 units (1.300 million expected). This is 1.7% (±1.4%) below the revised February rate of 1,291,000 (originally 1.317 million units) and 7.8% (±1.9%) below the March 2018 rate of 1,377,000 units; the NSA comparison: -11.6% YoY.

Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 808,000; this is 1.1% (±1.5%)* below the revised February figure of 817,000 (-10.0% YoY). Multi-family: 461,000 (-2.7% MoM; -14.6% YoY). 

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Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 63 in April, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment levels have held in the low 60s for the past three months.

“Builders report solid demand for new single-family homes but they are also grappling with affordability concerns stemming from a chronic shortage of construction workers and buildable lots,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

“Ongoing job growth, favorable demographics and a low-interest rate environment will help to modestly spark sales growth in the near term,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, supply-side headwinds that are putting upward pressure on housing costs will limit more robust growth in the housing market.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.