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Softwood
lumber exports increased (9 MMBF or +8.6%) in April; meanwhile, imports jumped (183
MMBF or +14.5%). Exports were 48 MMBF (-28.6%) below year-earlier levels;
imports were 109 MMBF (+8.2%) higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net
export deficit was 157 MMBF (+13.5%) larger. Also, the average net export
deficit for the 12 months ending April 2019 was 4.4% larger than the average of
the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the
graph above).
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North
America (42.4%; of which Canada: 23.0%; Mexico: 19.4%) and Asia (32.6%; especially
China: 14.4%; and Japan: 6.8%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood
lumber exports; the Caribbean ranked third with an 18.7% share. Year-to-date
(YTD) exports to China were -64.5% relative to the same months in 2018. Meanwhile,
Canada was the source of most (90.9%) of softwood lumber imports into the
United States. Imports from Canada were 0.6% higher YTD than the same months in
2018. Overall, YTD exports were down 26.0% compared to 2018; imports: +0.3%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented
the largest proportion (35.8% of the U.S. total), followed by the Eastern (28.6%)
and Gulf (26.2%) regions. Seattle (23.7% of the U.S. total) maintained the lead
over Mobile (16.3%) as the single most-active district. At the same time, Great
Lakes customs region handled 65.6% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the
Duluth, MN district (28.4%) -- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 24.7% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (16.6%)
and treated lumber (12.1%). Southern pine exports were down 47.6% YTD relative
to 2018, while treated: -29.6%; Doug-fir: -6.6%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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