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Softwood
lumber exports decreased (3 MMBF or -2.2%) in May; imports also fell (44 MMBF or
-3.0%). Exports were 46 MMBF (-28.2%) below year-earlier levels; imports were unchanged
(0.0%). As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 46 MMBF (+3.7%)
larger. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending May 2019 was
3.8% larger than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12)
% Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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North
America (44.2%; of which Canada: 26.3%; Mexico: 17.9%) and Asia (29.4%; especially
China: 7.4%; and Japan: 7.6%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood
lumber exports; the Caribbean ranked third with a 19.7% share. Year-to-date
(YTD) exports to China were -64.8% relative to the same months in 2018. Meanwhile,
Canada was the source of most (89.9%) of softwood lumber imports into the
United States. Imports from Canada were 0.4% lower YTD than the same months in
2018. Overall, YTD exports were down 26.5% compared to 2018; imports: +0.2%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented
the largest proportion (36.9% of the U.S. total), followed by the Gulf (26.7%) and
Eastern (25.8%) regions. Seattle (23.9% of the U.S. total) maintained the lead over
Mobile (17.7%) as the single most-active district. At the same time, Great
Lakes customs region handled 62.4% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the
Duluth, MN district (24.0%) -- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 24.2% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (15.9%)
and treated lumber (12.1%). Southern pine exports were down 46.6% YTD relative
to 2018, while treated: -28.9%; Doug-fir: -5.5%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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