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Sales of new
single-family houses in October 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)
of 733,000 units (707,000 expected).
This is 0.7% (±20.4%)* below the revised September rate of 738,000 (originally
701,000), but 31.6% (±23.7%) above the October 2018 SAAR of 557,000 units; the
not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison (shown in the table
above) was +32.6%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales were 47.2% below the
“housing bubble” peak but 9.0% above the long-term, pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in October rose to $316,700 ($6,500 or +2.1%
MoM); meanwhile, the average sales price jumped to $383,300 ($16,400 or +4.5%).
Starter homes (defined here as those priced below $200,000) comprised 8.8% of
the total sold, down from the year-earlier 9.3%; prior to the Great Recession
starter homes represented as much as 61% of total new-home sales. Homes priced
below $150,000 made up 1.8% of those sold in October, down from 4.7% a year
earlier.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero.
The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude
that the actual change is different from zero.
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As
mentioned in our post
about housing permits, starts and completions in October, single-unit
completions increased by 39,000 units (+4.5%). Because sales ticked down (-5,000
units; 0.7%) while completions rose, inventory for sale expanded in both absolute
(+1,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+0.1 month) terms.
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Existing home sales
advanced in October (+100,000 units or 1.9%), to a SAAR of 5.46 million units. Inventory
of existing homes for sale shrank in absolute (-50,000 units) and months-of-inventory
(-0.2 month) terms. Because new-home sales fell while resales rose, the share
of total sales comprised of new homes retreated to 11.8%. The median price of
previously owned homes sold in October declined to $270,900 ($600 or -0.2% MoM).
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Housing
affordability improved (+4.5 percentage points) as the median price of
existing homes for sale in September retreated by $6,800 (-2.4%; +6.1 YoY), to
$275,100. Concurrently, Standard
& Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices rose at a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of +0.1% (+3.2% YoY).
"September’s
report for the U.S. housing market is reassuring,” said Craig
Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at
S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The national composite index rose 3.2% relative to
year-ago levels, with smaller increases in our 10- and 20-city composites. Of
the 20 cities in the composite, only one (San Francisco) saw a year-over-year
price decline in September.
“After
a long period of decelerating price increases, it’s notable that in September
both the national and 20-city composite indices rose at a higher rate than in
August, while the 10-city index’s September rise matched its August
performance. It is, of course, too soon to say whether this month marks an end
to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend.
“At
a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the fourth consecutive month
with September’s 6.0% year-over-year gain. The Southeast region was also
strong, as Charlotte, Tampa, and Atlanta all rose at greater than a 4.0% clip.”
The foregoing comments represent the general
economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the
purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation
or recommendation regarding any investment.
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