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Softwood
lumber exports retreated (6 MMBF or -5.6%) in March; imports rose (290 MMBF or +27.0%).
Exports were 8 MMBF (-7.4%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 103 MMBF (+8.2%)
higher. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 111 MMBF (+9.6%)
larger. However, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending March
2020 was 0.3% smaller than the average of the same months a year earlier (the
“YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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North
America (45.8%; of which Canada: 24.7%; Mexico: 21.2%), Asia (26.8%; especially
China: 7.9%; and Japan: 8.0%), and the Caribbean: 19.9% (especially the
Dominican Republic: 6.0%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood
lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China were -33.1% relative to the
same months in 2019. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (88.2%) of softwood
lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 1.9% higher YTD
than the same months in 2019. Overall, YTD exports were down 6.4% compared to 2019;
imports: +4.8%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented
the largest proportion (34.6% of the U.S. total), followed by the Eastern (28.9%)
and Gulf (26.5%) regions. Seattle (21.8% of the U.S. total) was the single
most-active district, followed by Mobile (16.5%). At the same time, Great Lakes
customs region handled 60.7% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth,
MN district (21.6%) -- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 30.3% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (15.9%)
and treated lumber (12.0%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were up
10.6% YTD relative to 2019, while treated: +1.7%; Doug-fir: -8.6%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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