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Softwood
lumber exports retreated (22 MMBF or -21.3%) in April; imports also fell (163 MMBF
or -12.0%). Exports were 39 MMBF (-32.8%) below year-earlier levels; imports were
244 MMBF (-16.9%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export
deficit was 205 MMBF (-15.4%) smaller. Also, the average net export deficit for
the 12 months ending April 2020 was 2.9% smaller than the average of the same
months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the graph above).
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North
America (45.3%; of which Canada: 31.5%; Mexico: 13.8%), Asia (33.5%; especially
China: 16.1%; and Japan: 9.3%), and the Caribbean: 15.9% (especially the Jamaica:
6.1%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date
(YTD) exports to China were -30.5% relative to the same months in 2019. Meanwhile,
Canada was the source of most (86.0%) of softwood lumber imports into the
United States. Imports from Canada were 5.2% lower YTD than the same months in
2019. Overall, YTD exports were down 13.3% compared to 2019; imports: -1.8%.
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U.S.
softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented
the largest proportion (38.3% of the U.S. total), followed by the Eastern (28.5%)
and Gulf (22.8%) regions. Seattle (30.1% of the U.S. total) was the single
most-active district, followed by Mobile (15.4%). At the same time, Great Lakes
customs region handled 59.0% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth,
MN district (24.0%) -- coming into the United States.
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Southern
yellow pine comprised 28.7% of all softwood lumber exports, Douglas-fir (18.3%)
and treated lumber (12.4%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were up
2.1% YTD relative to 2019, while treated: -6.5%; Doug-fir: -13.6%.
The foregoing comments represent the
general economic views and analysis of Delphi
Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction
and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation
regarding any investment.
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