Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,615,000 units (1.575
million expected).
This is 3.9% (±11.3%)* above the revised July estimate of 1,554,000 (originally
1.543 million units) and 17.4% (±12.1%) above the August 2020 SAAR of 1,376,000
units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was +17.6%.
Single-family
housing starts in August were at a SAAR of 1,076,000 units; this is 2.8% (±10.4%)*
below the revised July figure of 1,107,000 units (+4.7% YoY). Multi-family: 539,000
units (+20.6% MoM; +57.0% YoY).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.
Total
completions in were at a SAAR of 1,330,000 units. This is 4.5% (±11.1%)* below the revised July
estimate of 1,392,000 (originally 1.391 million units), but 9.4% (±10.3%)*
above the August 2020 SAAR of 1,216,000 units; the NSA comparison: +8.7% YoY.
Single-family housing completions were at a SAAR of 971,000 units; this is 2.8% (±9.6%)* above the revised July rate of 945,000 units (+8.4% YoY). Multi-family: 359,000 units (-19.7% MoM; +9.6% YoY).
Total
permits were at a SAAR of 1,728,000 units (1.610 million expected). This is 6.0%
(±1.4%) above the revised July rate of 1,630,000 (originally 1.635 million
units) and 13.5% (±1.8%) above the August 2020 SAAR of 1,522,000 units; the NSA
comparison: +20.5% YoY.
Single-family permits were at a SAAR of 1,054,000; this is 0.6% (±1.3%)* above the revised July figure of 1,048,000 (+4.2% YoY). Multi-family: 674,000 units (+15.8% MoM; +58.4% YoY).
Builder
confidence inched up in September on lower lumber prices and strong housing
demand, even as the housing sector continues to grapple with building-material
supply chain issues and labor challenges. Ending a three-month decline, builder
sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes edged up one point
to 76 in September, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(HMI).
“Builder
sentiment has been gradually cooling since the HMI hit an all-time high reading
of 90 last November,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck
Fowke. “The September data show stability as some building material cost
challenges ease, particularly for softwood lumber. However, delivery times
remain extended, and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to
persist as the overall labor market recovers.”
“The
single-family building market has moved off the unsustainably hot pace of
construction of last fall and has reached a still hot but more stable level of
activity, as reflected in the September HMI,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert
Dietz. “While building material challenges persist, the rate of cost growth has
eased for some products, but the job openings rate in construction is trending
higher.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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