The
Bureau of Labor Statistics’
(
Observations
from the employment reports include:
*
The establishment (+194,000 jobs) and household surveys (+526,000 employed)
were not well correlated.
*
Goods-producing industries gained a rather miniscule 52,000 jobs;
service-providers: +142,000. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and
hospitality (+74,000), professional and business services (+60,000), retail
trade (+56,100), and transportation and warehousing (+47,300). Employment in
public education declined (-161,000). Commenting on the plunge in local
government teachers, the BLS said that "hiring this September was lower
than usual, resulting in a decline after seasonal adjustment. Recent employment
changes are challenging to interpret, as pandemic-related staffing fluctuations
in public and private education have distorted the normal seasonal hiring and
layoff patterns. Since February 2020, employment is down by 310,000 in local
government education, by 194,000 in state government education, and by 172,000
in private education."
Manufacturing added 26,000 jobs. That result is consistent with the change in the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing employment sub-index, which expanded in September. Wood Products employment rose by 2,300 (ISM was unchanged); Paper and Paper Products: +500 (ISM fell); Construction: +22,000 (ISM rose).
* The number of employment-age persons not in the labor force jumped (+338,000) to 100.4 million. Consequently, the employment-population ratio (EPR) rose to 58.7%; i.e., nearly six out of 10 in the employment-age population are presently employed.
* Because the civilian labor force shrank by 183,000 in September, the labor force participation rate edged down to 61.6%. Average hourly earnings of all private employees increased by $0.19 (to $30.85), and the year-over-year increase jumped to +4.6%. For all production and nonsupervisory employees (shown above), the tale was much the same: hourly wages rose by $0.14, to $26.15 (+5.5% YoY). Since the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls lengthened (0.2 hour) to 34.8 hours, average weekly earnings increased by $12.74, to $1,073.58 (+4.3% YoY). With the consumer price index running at an annual rate of +5.3% in August, even those who are employed are -- on average -- not keeping up with the official inflation rate.
* Full-time jobs jumped (+591,000) to 128.0 million. Workers employed part time for economic reasons (shown in the graph above) -- e.g., slack work or business conditions, or could find only part-time work -- edged down by 1,000, whereas those working part time for non-economic reasons rose by 30,000; multiple-job holders advanced by 4,000.
For a “sanity test” of the job numbers, we consult
employment withholding taxes published by the U.S. Treasury. Although “noisy”
and highly seasonal, the data show the amount withheld in September rose by $3.1
billion, to $233.0 billion (+1.3% MoM; +25.4% YoY). To reduce some of the monthly
volatility and determine broader trends, we average the most recent three
months of data and estimate a percentage change from the same months in the
previous year. The average of the three months ending September was 20.0% above
the year-earlier average.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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