Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,520,000 units (1.587
million expected).
This is 0.7% (±12.2%)* below the revised September estimate of 1,530,000
(originally 1.555 million units), but 0.4% (±12.3%)* above the October 2020 SAAR
of 1,514,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table
above) was -0.2%.
Single-family
housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,039,000; this is 3.9% (±9.5%)*
below the revised September figure of 1,081,000 units (-11.7% YoY).
Multi-family: 481,000 units (+7.1% MoM; +37.1% YoY).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.
Total
completions were at a SAAR of 1,242,000 units. This is virtually unchanged from
(±13.0%)* the revised September estimate of 1,242,000 (originally 1.240 million
units), but 8.4% (±9.2%)* below the October 2020 SAAR of 1,356,000 units; the
NSA comparison: -9.3% YoY.
Single-family completions were at a SAAR of 929,000; this is 1.7% (±12.7%)* below the revised September rate of 945,000 units (+2.4% YoY). Multi-family: 313,000 units (+5.4% MoM; -32.7% YoY).
Total
permits were at a SAAR of 1,650,000 units (1.630 million expected). This is 4.0%
(±1.5%) above the revised September rate of 1,586,000 (originally 1.589 million
units) and 3.4% (±1.6%) above the October 2020 SAAR of 1,595,000 units; the NSA
comparison: +0.1% YoY.
Single-family were at a SAAR of 1,069,000 units; this is 2.7% (±1.2%) above the revised September figure of 1,041,000 units (-10.8% YoY). Multi-family: 581,000 units (+6.6% MoM; +26.0% YoY).
Low
existing inventories and strong buyer demand helped push builder confidence
higher for the third consecutive month even as supply-side challenges --
including building material bottlenecks and lot and labor shortages -- remain
stubbornly persistent. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built
single-family homes moved three points higher to 83 in November, according to
the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
“The
solid market for home building continued in November despite ongoing
supply-side challenges,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck
Fowke. “Lack of resale inventory combined with strong consumer demand
continues to boost single-family home building.”
“In
addition to well publicized concerns over building materials and the national
supply chain, labor and building lot access are key constraints for housing
supply,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Lot availability is at
multi-decade lows and the construction industry currently has more than 330,000
open positions. Policymakers need to focus on resolving these issues to help
builders produce more housing to meet strong market demand.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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