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Wednesday, November 17, 2021

October 2021 Residential Permits, Starts and Completions

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Builders started construction of privately-owned housing units in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,520,000 units (1.587 million expected). This is 0.7% (±12.2%)* below the revised September estimate of 1,530,000 (originally 1.555 million units), but 0.4% (±12.3%)* above the October 2020 SAAR of 1,514,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table above) was -0.2%. 

Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,039,000; this is 3.9% (±9.5%)* below the revised September figure of 1,081,000 units (-11.7% YoY). Multi-family: 481,000 units (+7.1% MoM; +37.1% YoY).

* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.

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Total completions were at a SAAR of 1,242,000 units. This is virtually unchanged from (±13.0%)* the revised September estimate of 1,242,000 (originally 1.240 million units), but 8.4% (±9.2%)* below the October 2020 SAAR of 1,356,000 units; the NSA comparison: -9.3% YoY.

Single-family completions were at a SAAR of 929,000; this is 1.7% (±12.7%)* below the revised September rate of 945,000 units (+2.4% YoY). Multi-family: 313,000 units (+5.4% MoM; -32.7% YoY).

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Total permits were at a SAAR of 1,650,000 units (1.630 million expected). This is 4.0% (±1.5%) above the revised September rate of 1,586,000 (originally 1.589 million units) and 3.4% (±1.6%) above the October 2020 SAAR of 1,595,000 units; the NSA comparison: +0.1% YoY.

Single-family were at a SAAR of 1,069,000 units; this is 2.7% (±1.2%) above the revised September figure of 1,041,000 units (-10.8% YoY). Multi-family: 581,000 units (+6.6% MoM; +26.0% YoY).

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Low existing inventories and strong buyer demand helped push builder confidence higher for the third consecutive month even as supply-side challenges -- including building material bottlenecks and lot and labor shortages -- remain stubbornly persistent. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes moved three points higher to 83 in November, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“The solid market for home building continued in November despite ongoing supply-side challenges,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Lack of resale inventory combined with strong consumer demand continues to boost single-family home building.”

“In addition to well publicized concerns over building materials and the national supply chain, labor and building lot access are key constraints for housing supply,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Lot availability is at multi-decade lows and the construction industry currently has more than 330,000 open positions. Policymakers need to focus on resolving these issues to help builders produce more housing to meet strong market demand.”

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.

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