April 2022 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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With April exports of goods and services at $252.6 billion (+3.5% MoM; +21.7% YoY) and imports at $339.7 billion (-3.4% MoM; +24.3% YoY), the net trade deficit was $87.1 billion (-19.1% MoM; +32.5% YoY). 

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Softwood lumber exports fell slightly (5 MMBF or -4.4%) in April, along with imports (58 MMBF or -4.2%). Exports were 13 MMBF (-11.1%) below year-earlier levels; imports were 137 MMBF (-9.3%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 124 MMBF (-9.2%). Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending April 2022 was 4.2% lower than the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the lumber-trade graph above).

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North America (61.8% of total softwood lumber exports; of which Mexico: 32.0%; Canada: 29.8%), Asia (13.4%; especially Japan: 4.2%; and Pakistan: 1.6%), and the Caribbean: 17.6% especially the Dominican Republic: 5.2%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China (2.9% of U.S. total) were -48.2% relative to the same month of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (83.2%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 9.9% lower YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were up 4.0% compared to the prior year; imports: -6.8%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 34.9% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 32.1%, and Eastern: 21.4%. Seattle (19.5% of the U.S. total), Mobile (12.6%), San Diego (13.0%) and Laredo (13.0%) were among the most active districts. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 54.5% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (22.5%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 21.1% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (17.8%), treated lumber (15.2%), other pine (8.7%) and finger-jointed (9.9%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down 15.2% YTD/YTD, while Doug-fir: +25.4%; and treated: +22.0%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.