June 2022 International Trade (Softwood Lumber)

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With June exports of goods and services at $260.8 billion (+1.7% MoM; +22.8% YoY) and imports at $340.4 billion (-0.3% MoM; +20.0% YoY), the net trade deficit was $79.6 billion (-6.2% MoM; +11.6% YoY). 

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Softwood lumber exports rose (11 MMBF or +9.3%) in June, along with imports (20 MMBF or +1.4%). Exports were 19 MMBF (+17.3%) above year-earlier levels; imports were 20 MMBF (-1.4%) lower. As a result, the year-over-year (YoY) net export deficit was 39 MMBF (-2.9%) smaller. Also, the average net export deficit for the 12 months ending June 2022 was 9.7% below the average of the same months a year earlier (the “YoY MA(12) % Chng” series shown in the lumber-trade graph above).

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North America (61.1% of total softwood lumber exports; of which Mexico: 34.2%; Canada: 26.9%), Asia (10.6%; especially Japan: 3.3%), and the Caribbean: 21.7% especially the Dominican Republic: 6.9%) were the primary destinations for U.S. softwood lumber exports. Year-to-date (YTD) exports to China (2.1% of U.S. total) were -44.9% relative to the same month of the prior year. Meanwhile, Canada was the source of most (82.2%) softwood lumber imports into the United States. Imports from Canada were 8.8% lower YTD/YTD. Overall, YTD exports were up 7.7% compared to the prior year; imports: -6.2%.

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U.S. softwood lumber export activity through the West Coast customs region represented 33.4% of the U.S. total; Gulf: 37.4%, and Eastern: 18.6%. Seattle (17.4% of the U.S. total), Mobile (17.4%), San Diego (14.3%) and Laredo (14.7%) were among the most active districts. At the same time, Great Lakes customs region handled 54.4% of softwood lumber imports -- most notably the Duluth, MN district (21.6%) -- coming into the United States. 

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Southern yellow pine comprised 24.5% of all softwood lumber exports; Douglas-fir (15.1%), treated lumber (14.0%), other pine (9.4%) and finger-jointed (7.5%) were also significant. Southern pine exports were down 5.2% YTD/YTD, while Doug-fir: +27.0%; treated: +20.2%; and finger-jointed: +52.4%.

The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.