September 2022 Consumer and Producer Price Indices (incl. Forest Products)

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Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4% in September (+0.2% expected) after rising 0.1% in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 8.2% before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all-items increase. These increases were partly offset by a 4.9% decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8% over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7%. The energy index fell 2.1% over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6% in September, as it did in August. The indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in September, including those for used cars and trucks, apparel, and communication.

The all-items index increased 8.2% for the 12 months ending September, a slightly smaller figure than the 8.3% increase for the period ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 6.6% over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 19.8% for the 12 months ending September, a smaller increase than the 23.8% increase for the period ending August. The food index increased 11.2% over the last year.

 

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI-FD) increased 0.4% in September (+0.2% expected). Final demand prices declined 0.2% in August and 0.4% in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 8.5% for the 12 months ended in September.

In September, two-thirds of the increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4% rise in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods also advanced 0.4%.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.4% in September, the largest rise since increasing 0.5% in May. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 5.6%.

Final Demand

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services advanced 0.4% in September after climbing 0.3% in August. Most of the September increase is attributable to a 0.6% rise in the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing. Margins for final demand trade services edged up 0.1%. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.2%.

Product detail: Over a quarter of the September increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 6.4% advance in prices for traveler accommodation services. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing, portfolio management, machinery and vehicle wholesaling, oil and gas well drilling services, and hospital inpatient care also rose. In contrast, prices for long-distance motor carrying fell 0.4%. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing and for consumer loans (partial) also decreased.

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.4% in September after decreasing 1.1% in August. Sixty percent of the advance is attributable to a 1.2% increase in the index for final demand foods. Prices for final demand energy rose 0.7%. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy was unchanged.

Product detail: A major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7% advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher. Conversely, the index for gasoline fell 2.0%. Prices for prepared poultry and for steel mill products also declined.

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All of the not-seasonally adjusted price indexes we track were either unchanged or retreated MoM, but all advanced YoY.

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The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purposes of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.