Builders
started construction of privately-owned housing units in
February at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,450,000 units (1.315
million expected).
This is 9.8% (±15.5%)* above the revised January estimate of 1,321,000
(originally 1.309 million units), but 18.4% (±8.9%) below the February 2022 SAAR
of 1,777,000 units; the not-seasonally adjusted YoY change (shown in the table
above) was -16.8%.
Single-family
housing starts in February were at a SAAR of 830,000; this is 1.1% (±13.9%)*
above the revised January figure of 821,000 units (-31.1% YoY). Multi-family: 620,000
units (+24.0% MoM; +12.7% YoY).
* 90% confidence interval (CI) is not statistically different from zero. The Census Bureau does not publish CIs for the entire multi-unit category.
Total
completions were at a SAAR of 1,557,000 units. This is 12.2% (±15.0%)* above
the revised January estimate of 1,388,000 (originally 1.406 million units) and 12.8%
(±16.2%)* above the February 2022 SAAR of 1,380,000 units; the NSA comparison:
+12.3% YoY.
Single-family completions were at a SAAR of 1,037,000; this is 1.0% (±15.0%)* above the revised January rate of 1,027,000 units (-1.9% YoY). Multi-family: 520,000 units (+44.0% MoM; +68.0% YoY).
Total
permits were at a SAAR of 1,524,000 units (1.340 million expected). This is
13.8% above the revised January rate of 1,339,000 (originally 1.339 million
units) but 17.9% below the February 2022 SAAR of 1,857,000 units; the NSA
comparison: -16.7% YoY.
Single-family authorizations were at a SAAR of 777,000; this is 7.6% above the revised January figure of 722,000 units (-33.2% YoY). Multi-family: 747,000 units (+21.1% MoM; +15.5% YoY).
Press
release from NAHB’s Robert Dietz:
Although
high construction costs and elevated interest rates continue to hamper housing
affordability, builders expressed cautious optimism in March as a lack of
existing inventory is shifting demand to the new home market.
Builder
confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in March rose two
points to 44, according to the National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the third straight
monthly increase in builder sentiment levels.
While
financial system stress has recently reduced long-term interest rates, which
will help housing demand in the coming weeks, the cost and availability of
housing inventory remains a critical constraint for prospective home buyers.
For example, 40% of builders in our March HMI survey currently cite lot
availability as poor. And a follow-on effect of the pressure on regional banks,
as well as continued Fed tightening, will be further constraints for
acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loans for builders across
the nation. When AD&C loan conditions are tight, lot inventory constricts
and adds an additional hurdle to housing affordability.
Meanwhile,
the HMI survey shows that builders had better than anticipated new home sales
during the past two months because of continued use of incentives and price
discounts. Thirty-one percent of builders said they reduced home prices in
March, the same share as in February, but lower than the 36% that was reported
last November. And 58% provided some type of incentive in March, about the same
as the 57% who did in February, but lower than the 62% of builders who offered
incentives in December.
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.