Sales of new
single-family houses in June 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)
of 697,000 units (727,000 expected).
This is 2.5% (±12.7%)* below the revised May rate of 715,000 (originally 763,000
units), but is 23.8% (±22.5%) above the June 2022 SAAR of 563,000 units; the
not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison (shown in the table
above) was +25.0%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales were 49.8% below the
“housing bubble” peak but 14.8% above the long-term, pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in June 2023 was $415,400 (-0.5%, or
$1,900). The average sales price was $494,700 (+1.2%, or $6,000). Homes priced
at/above $750,000 comprised 11.7% of sales, up from the year-earlier 6.3%.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in June, single-unit completions dipped by 28,000 units (-2.8%). Sales also slipped (18,000 units, or -2.5%), resulting in inventory for sale expanding in both absolute (+3,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+0.2 month) terms.
Existing home sales fell (-3.3% or 140,000 units) in June to a SAAR of 4.16 million units (4.23 million expected). The inventory of existing homes for sale was unchanged in absolute terms but months-of-inventory expanded (+0.1 month). Because resales retreated by a greater proportion than new-home sales, the share of total sales comprised of new homes increased to 14.4%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in June rose to $410,200 (+3,5% or $13,800).
Housing affordability dipped (-3.2 index points) as the median price of
existing homes for sale in May rose by $10,900 (+2.8% MoM; -3.4 YoY) to $401,100.
Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices decelerated to a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of +1.2% (-0.5% YoY).
“The
rally in U.S. home prices continued in May 2023,” said Craig
Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by
1.2% in May, and now stands only 1.0% below its June 2022 peak. The 10- and
20-City Composites also rose in May, in both cases by 1.5%.
“The
ongoing recovery in home prices is broadly based. Before seasonal adjustment,
prices rose in all 20 cities in May (as they had also done in March and April).
Seasonally adjusted data showed rising prices in 19 cities in May, repeating
April’s performance. (The outlier is Phoenix, down 0.1% in both months.) On a
trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is 0.5% below its May 2022
level, with the 10- and 20-City Composites also negative on a year-over-year
basis.
“Regional
differences continue to be striking. This month’s league table shows the
Revenge of the Rust Belt, as Chicago (+4.6%), Cleveland (+3.9%), and New York
(+3.5%) were the top performers. If this seems like an unusual occurrence to
you, it seems that way to me too. It’s been five years to the month since a
cold-weather city held the top spot (and that was Seattle, which isn’t all that
cold). Since May 2018, the top-ranked cities have been Las Vegas (12 months),
Phoenix (33 months), Tampa (5 months), and Miami (9 months).
“At
the other end of the scale, the worst performers continue to cluster near the
Pacific coast, with Seattle (-11.3%) and San Francisco (-11.0%) at the bottom.
This month the Midwest (+2.7%) unseated the Southeast (+2.1%) as the country’s
strongest region. The West (-6.9%) remains weakest.
“Home
prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the
case that the final month of the decline was January 2023. Granted, the last
four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or
by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are
consistent with an optimistic view of future months.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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