Sales of new
single-family houses in July 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)
of 714,000 units (705,000 expected).
This is 4.4% (±12.8%)* above the revised June rate of 684,000 (originally 697,000
units) and is 31.5% (±16.3%) above the July 2022 SAAR of 543,000 units; the
not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year-over-year comparison (shown in the table
above) was +34.10%. For longer-term perspectives, NSA sales were 48.6% below
the “housing bubble” peak but 12.9% above the long-term, pre-2000 average.
The
median sales price of new houses sold in July was $436,700 (+4.8%, or $20,000).
The average sales price was $513,000 (+1.1%, or $5,700). Homes priced at/above
$750,000 comprised 10.2% of sales, down from the year-earlier 13.6%.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
As mentioned in our post about housing permits, starts and completions in July, single-unit completions advanced by 13,000 units (+1.3%). Sales also rose (30,000 units, or +4.4%), resulting in inventory for sale expanding in absolute terms (+11,000 units) but shrinking in months-of-inventory (-0.2 month) terms.
Existing home sales fell (-2.2% or 90,000 units) in July to a SAAR of 4.07 million units (4.15 million expected). The inventory of existing homes for sale expanded in both absolute (+40,000 units) and months-of-inventory (+0.2 month) terms. Because resales retreated while new-home sales rose, the share of total sales comprised of new homes increased to 14.9%. The median price of previously owned homes sold in July fell to $406,700 (-0.8% or $3,300).
Housing affordability slid (-5.9 index points) as the median price of
existing homes for sale in June rose by $14,500 (+3.6% MoM; -1.2% YoY) to $416,000.
Concurrently, Standard & Poor’s reported that the U.S. National Index in the S&P Case-Shiller
CoreLogic Home Price indices decelerated to a not-seasonally adjusted monthly change
of +0.9% (-0.02% YoY).
“U.S.
home prices continued to increase in June 2023," says Craig J. Lazzara,
Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in
June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all-time peak from exactly one
year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June
2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.
“As
we've noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based. Prices
rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over
the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the
cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.
“Regional
differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, June's three
best-performing cities were Chicago (+4.2%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York
(+3.4%) – the same three that had topped our May leader board. At the other end
of the scale, the worst performers continue to be in the Pacific and Mountain
time zones, with San Francisco (-9.7%) and Seattle (-8.8%) at the bottom. The
Midwest (+2.8%) continues as the nation's strongest region, followed this month
by the Northeast (+1.6%). The West (-5.9%) remains the weakest region.
“June
is the fifth consecutive month in which home prices have increased across the
U.S. With 2023 half over, the National Composite has risen 4.7%, which is
slightly above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of
data. We recognize that the market's gains could be truncated by increases in
mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, but the breadth and strength of
this month's report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results.”
The foregoing comments represent the general economic views and analysis of Delphi Advisors, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse. They do not constitute a solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment.
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